[
 {
  "id": "estudo:dieese-2021",
  "titulo": "Intersectoral economic implications of Operation Lava Jato",
  "autores": "DIEESE (marcas do DIEESE e da CUT; gráfico do slide 3 elaborado pela Subseção DIEESE/FUP)",
  "instituicao": "org:dieese",
  "natureza_instituicao": "DIEESE (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies) is a research entity created and maintained by the labor movement. It is not a government body. The presentation also bears the mark of the CUT, a labor federation.",
  "ano": "2021",
  "fonte": "fonte:f00-dieese-2021-lava-jato",
  "periodo": "2014–2017",
  "metodo": "Choque de demanda numa matriz insumo-produto (MIP 2010 atualizada pelo método de Passoni, 2019). O choque soma (a) a diferença entre o investimento da Petrobras projetado por regressão linear múltipla (receita líquida, Brent, lucro líquido) e o realizado em 2015–2017 e (b) o valor de obras de construção paralisadas segundo levantamento em sites do MPF e do TCU.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Everything that the Petrobras regression does not explain with revenue, Brent and profit is attributed to the way the operation was conducted.",
   "The works listed as halted would not have stopped for other reasons (fiscal crisis, lack of credit, canceled plans).",
   "The coefficients of the 2010 matrix, updated, hold for 2014–2017.",
   "Consumption lost through income not generated (income effect) is counted in full in the impact."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "Material in presentation format: the regression, the list of works and the values per work were not published.",
   "Nominal values, uncorrected.",
   "The jobs add up over four years; they are not distinct people laid off.",
   "More than half of the jobs (2.39 million) come from the income effect.",
   "It does not separate the effects of corruption itself (overpricing, poorly planned projects) from the effects of how the investigations were conducted.",
   "The study's own 'without Lava Jato' scenario keeps the recession: GDP of −2.5% in 2015 and −2.1% in 2016."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Reduction in investments (Petrobras + construction)",
    "valor": 172214520000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-reducao-investimentos"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Value added not generated",
    "valor": 244647000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-impactos-totais"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Potential jobs, summed 2014–2017",
    "valor": 4439789,
    "unidade": "ocupacoes",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-impactos-totais"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Wage bill",
    "valor": 85754000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-impactos-totais"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Taxes",
    "valor": 47441000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-impactos-totais"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Social security and FGTS",
    "valor": 20259000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f00-dieese-impactos-totais"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "See the other studies gathered in another entry in the collection.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f00-canonicas"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-go-associados-2015",
  "titulo": "Estimate of the effects of Operation Lava Jato on economic activity (GO Associados), 2015",
  "autores": "GO Associados (sócios Gesner Oliveira e Fernando Marcato citados pela imprensa)",
  "instituicao": "org:go-associados",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Private economics consultancy.",
  "ano": "2015",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-gazeta-go-associados-2015-08",
  "periodo": "2015 (ex ante scenario, released on August 12, 2015)",
  "metodo": "Matriz insumo-produto aplicada à redução de investimentos da Petrobras e de obras públicas, com efeitos diretos e indiretos.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Petrobras 2015–2019 plan with a 37% cut in investments.",
   "30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors.",
   "Effect amplified in a recessionary period and more absorbable in an expanding economy."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "Original document not located; known only through news reports (Gazeta do Povo, BBC Brasil).",
   "Scenario published during the year itself, without ex post confirmation.",
   "It does not separate corruption, the conduct of the investigations and the fall in oil prices; the consultancy says most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations, but does not quantify it.",
   "GO's partner described the scenario as relatively pessimistic (BBC Brasil, December 2, 2015)."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Direct and indirect impact on activity in 2015 (about 2.5% of GDP)",
    "valor": 143000000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f01-go-2015-142bi"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Potential jobs affected in 2015",
    "valor": 1900000,
    "unidade": "ocupacoes",
    "evid": "evid:f01-go-2015-empregos-e-setores"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Contraction of the wage bill",
    "valor": 22400000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f01-go-2015-empregos-e-setores"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Tax revenue lost",
    "valor": 9400000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f01-go-2015-empregos-e-setores"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Earlier estimate (April 2015, with FGV): loss to the economy",
    "valor": 87000000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f01-go-fgv-2015-04-87bi"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "BBC Brasil records the amount as R$142.6 billion; Gazeta do Povo, as about R$143 billion. The R$142 billion figure that appears in texts by Paula and Moura (2019) and in Ineep is possibly the same GO estimate; not demonstrated (the article attributes R$142 bn to losses in four sectors, citing consultancies, and GO estimated the impact on total economic activity in 2015).",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-tendencias-2015",
  "titulo": "Estimate of the impact of Lava Jato on 2015 GDP (Tendências Consultoria)",
  "autores": "Tendências Consultoria (economista Alessandra Ribeiro citada pela imprensa)",
  "instituicao": "org:tendencias",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Private economics consultancy.",
  "ano": "2015",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-bbc-ihu-2015-12-tendencias-go",
  "periodo": "2015 (December 2015 projection)",
  "metodo": "Não descrito na reportagem; a consultoria usa o peso do investimento da Petrobras (2% do PIB) e das grandes construtoras (2,8% do PIB) e estimativa própria de redução desses investimentos.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Projected 2015 GDP contraction of 3.2%.",
   "Without the operation, the contraction would be about 0.7% to 1.3%."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "Original study not located.",
   "The news report does not explain how the consultancy isolated the effect of the operation.",
   "Ex ante projection during the current year."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Subtraction from 2015 GDP growth (percentage points)",
    "valor": 2.5,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-tendencias-2015-25pp"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "Same order of magnitude as GO Associados (2.5% of GDP), but the two consultancies start from the same shock (lower investment by Petrobras and the contractors) and are not independent evidence of each other. The October 2015 SPE/MF document uses Tendências' assumption for the contractors (15% reduction).",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-mf-spe-2015",
  "titulo": "Impacts of the reduction in oil and gas sector investments on GDP",
  "autores": "Secretaria de Política Econômica (SPE/MF), com possível participação do MME (indicado pelo nome do arquivo)",
  "instituicao": "org:ministerio-fazenda",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Federal government body (Ministry of Finance); economic outlook analysis document of the Dilma Rousseff government.",
  "ano": "2015",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-mf-spe-2015-impacto-oleo-gas",
  "periodo": "2015 (document of October 21, 2015)",
  "metodo": "Estimativa direta (peso da Petrobras no PIB x corte anunciado), multiplicador de matriz insumo-produto da FGV (2010) e peso dos investimentos das empreiteiras segundo a Tendências.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Petrobras accounts for about 1.8% of GDP (2010–2014 average) and 8.8% of total investment.",
   "Petrobras investment falls 33% in 2015 (US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn).",
   "Multiplier of 2.5 (R$1 bn of E&P investment generates R$2.452 bn of output, with income effect).",
   "Contractors invest 2.8% of GDP and cut 15%."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It measures the macroeconomic effect of the reduction in investment, not that of the operation; the text points to the fall in oil prices as the main factor in 2015, but also cites factors of a non-economic nature, with a preponderant role in the company's behavior, and compliance issues, without naming the operation.",
   "Multiplier from a 2010 study applied to 2015, in recession.",
   "The text mentions 'in 2014' for the conclusion about 2 percentage points, probably an error.",
   "Government document in the midst of a political dispute over the causes of the recession; copy hosted by a labor-union entity (FUP)."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Direct effect of the Petrobras cut (percentage points of GDP)",
    "valor": 0.6,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-mf-2015-petrobras-17pc"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Total effect of the Petrobras cut with multiplier (about 1.7% of GDP)",
    "valor": 30000000000,
    "unidade": "USD",
    "evid": "evid:f01-mf-2015-petrobras-17pc"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Effect of the reduction in contractors' investments (percentage points of GDP)",
    "valor": 0.4,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-mf-2015-empreiteiras-04pc"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Sum of direct, indirect and lateral effects (more than 2 percentage points of GDP)",
    "valor": 2,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-mf-2015-empreiteiras-04pc"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "Contemporaneous with and of the same magnitude as the consultancies' estimates (2 to 2.5 points), but it underscores oil as the main factor in 2015.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-ibre-borges-2018-09",
  "titulo": "How did Lava-Jato affect GDP? New evidence for the debate",
  "autores": "Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV e LCA Consultores)",
  "instituicao": "org:ibre-fgv",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Economic research center of the Fundação Getulio Vargas; the author is also an economist at a private consultancy.",
  "ano": "2018",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-ibre-borges-2018-novas-evidencias",
  "periodo": "2012–2018 (recession 2014–2016)",
  "metodo": "Revisão de evidências: estudo do BCE (controle sintético, 23 países), índice de notícias de corrupção do FMI (painel), datação do Codace e reestimação do PIB com deflator corrigido.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Anti-corruption reforms and campaigns tend to have a short-term cost and a medium- and long-term benefit."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It does not produce its own estimate for Lava Jato.",
   "International evidence is not specific to Brazil.",
   "Blog: the author's opinions, not the institution's."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Reduction in per capita GDP in the two years after a corruption news shock (IMF, country average)",
    "valor": 3,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-ibre-2018-sem-estimativa-propria"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "It cites, without endorsing, the figure of 15% of GDP attributed by some, far above the others. It contrasts with ANPEC 2025 (5% to 7%), which uses a synthetic country, and with the consultancies' estimates (2 to 2.5 points in 2015).",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-ibre-borges-2018-01",
  "titulo": "The difference between the effects of Lava-Jato in the short term and in the medium and long term",
  "autores": "Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV e LCA Consultores)",
  "instituicao": "org:ibre-fgv",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Economic research center of the Fundação Getulio Vargas; the author is also an economist at a private consultancy.",
  "ano": "2018",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-ibre-borges-2018-curto-medio-prazo",
  "periodo": "1999–2017",
  "metodo": "Decomposição comparativa do crescimento (1999–2011 versus 2012–2016), correlação com preços de commodities (1997–2017) e literatura de choques globais (Fernández, Schmitt-Grohé e Uribe, NBER 2016).",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Share of growth explained by global shocks (commodities and world interest rates)."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It does not quantify the effect of the operation; the author's estimates have limited methodological detail in the text.",
   "Blog: the author's opinions, not the institution's."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Share of the 2012–2016 slowdown attributed to the international environment (approx.)",
    "valor": 50,
    "unidade": "pct_desaceleracao",
    "evid": "evid:f01-ibre-2018-janeiro-externo"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Contribution of the change in inventories to the 2015 GDP decline (percentage points, out of 3.5)",
    "valor": 2.4,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-ibre-2018-janeiro-externo"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "It presents the thesis that the operation may have reduced growth in the short term (halted works) without denying the role of external shocks and policy errors. The author does not rule out a short-term effect of the operation, without quantifying it, and attributes most of the slowdown to external shocks and earlier policy errors.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-barbosa-filho-2017",
  "titulo": "The economic crisis of 2014/2017",
  "autores": "Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho",
  "instituicao": "org:estudos-avancados",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Article in an academic journal (Estudos Avançados, IEA-USP); the author's institutional affiliation was not verified in this version of the collection.",
  "ano": "2017",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-barbosa-filho-2017-crise-2014-2017",
  "periodo": "2011–2017",
  "metodo": "Análise macroeconômica da combinação de choques de oferta e demanda e da sustentabilidade da dívida.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "The New Economic Matrix reduced productivity and potential output."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It does not address Lava Jato or corruption; it serves as an alternative interpretation, not as a hypothesis test against the operation.",
   "The weight of policy errors is contested by other economists, such as Borges (IBRE)."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in per capita GDP 2014 to 2016 (approx.)",
    "valor": 9,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-barbosa-filho-2017-causas"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "See estudo:f01-ibre-borges-2018-01 (share of external shocks) and the consultancies' estimates (Lava Jato share).",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-cedeplar-2024",
  "titulo": "Operation Lava Jato, conventions and private investment",
  "autores": "William Fabiano Dias Filho, Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende, Lucas Carvalho",
  "instituicao": "org:cedeplar-ufmg",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Center for regional development and planning of UFMG (a federal public university).",
  "ano": "2024",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-cedeplar-lava-jato-convencoes-investimento",
  "periodo": "2002.1 to 2023.1 (effect measured from 2014.2 to 2023.1)",
  "metodo": "Equação de investimento privado estimada por ARIMAX, com dummy de intercepto e dummies de interação para o período pós-delações; abordagem pós-keynesiana (convenções e incerteza).",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Lava Jato fostered a pessimistic convention that depressed private investment and its sensitivity to its determinants."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "The dummy captures everything that changed from 2014.2 onward (economic policy, commodities, political crisis); the authors admit possible overestimation.",
   "Presented in conference proceedings; not an indexed journal; publication date not given.",
   "The paper reproduces the DIEESE (2021) results in Table 1, without replicating them."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Coefficient of the intercept dummy in equation 2A (p = 0.014)",
    "valor": -1.25,
    "unidade": "coeficiente",
    "evid": "evid:f01-cedeplar-resultado-investimento"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "It is the only academic work, among those found, that tests the operation's effect on aggregate private investment with quarterly data; its result converges with ANPEC 2025, and both depend on the same type of dummy or cutoff date.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico",
  "titulo": "The Brazilian crisis of 2014-2016: differences in per capita GDP trajectories since Lava Jato",
  "autores": "Helder L. Ferreira-Filho, Jefferson S. Fraga, Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho",
  "instituicao": "org:anpec",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Academic paper (UnB, UFS, FGV EESP and IBRE) submitted to the ANPEC 2025 National Meeting; it is not a peer-reviewed publication.",
  "ano": "2025",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico",
  "periodo": "1990–2019 and 2000–2019; shock dated to 2014",
  "metodo": "Controle sintético sobre PIB per capita (US$ constantes de 2017), com amostra de 133 países e de países da América Latina; placebos para Chile, México e Paraguai.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "The shock is Lava Jato 'and associated factors,' beginning in 2014.",
   "Countries with similar pre-shock characteristics would have a trajectory similar to Brazil's without the shock."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It does not separate Lava Jato from other shocks around 2014 (oil price, water and energy crisis, 2013 protests, economic policy); the authors acknowledge the limitation.",
   "Synthetic Brazil composed of a few countries, sometimes very different from one another (Ecuador, Uruguay, Congo, etc.).",
   "The results measure what fell below the counterfactual, not why."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Average difference in per capita GDP versus the synthetic control, 2014–2019, world sample 1990–2019",
    "valor": -7,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Average difference in per capita GDP versus the synthetic control, 2014–2019, world sample 2000–2019",
    "valor": -6,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Average difference, Latin America 1990–2019",
    "valor": -5,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Average difference, Latin America 2000–2019",
    "valor": -5.5,
    "unidade": "pct_pib_per_capita",
    "evid": "evid:f01-anpec-2025-controle-sintetico"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "It measures per capita GDP accumulated over six years, a quantity different from the consultancies' estimates (GDP points in 2015) and from DIEESE's (GDP accumulated 2014–2017); do not compare directly. The article's own literature review records synthetic control studies (Balassiano 2018; Pessoa 2017) that attribute 40% of the slowdown to international factors and 3.1 points per year of difference.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-ferraz-nber-2025",
  "titulo": "The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil's Lava Jato Investigation",
  "autores": "Claudio Ferraz (UBC, PUC-Rio, NBER), Luiz C. Moura (UFRJ), Lars Norden (FGV EBAPE), Ricardo Schechtman (Banco Central do Brasil)",
  "instituicao": "org:nber",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Working paper of the National Bureau of Economic Research (USA), not peer-reviewed at the time; the authors state that the opinions do not reflect those of the Central Bank, FGV or NBER.",
  "ano": "2025",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-ferraz-nber-2025-real-costs",
  "periodo": "2011–2016 (RAIS 2012–2016; credit 2011Q1–2016Q2)",
  "metodo": "Diferença em diferenças com dados pareados empresa-banco (RAIS, registro de crédito do Banco Central, dados do MPF e do TSE); 21 construtoras investigadas contra grandes empresas de controle (>250 empregados); controle sintético e amostra pareada como robustez; efeito indireto via exposição de 44 bancos privados.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Treatment is the start of the investigations (2014).",
   "Parallel trends before 2014 (supported by the event study)."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It measures effects on large firms; the sample ends in mid-2016.",
   "The effect on the investigated firms includes the loss of public contracts and the recession in the construction sector.",
   "It does not convert the effects into GDP, nor separate the costs of corruption from those of how the operation was conducted.",
   "The indirect effect is relative (more exposed versus less exposed firms), not a total aggregate effect."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in the wage bill of investigated firms",
    "valor": -63,
    "unidade": "pct_massa_salarial",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-direto-empresas"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in employment at investigated firms",
    "valor": -54,
    "unidade": "pct_emprego",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-direto-empresas"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in the volume of new loans to investigated firms",
    "valor": -50,
    "unidade": "pct_credito",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-direto-empresas"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Aggregate reduction in new credit to non-investigated firms, firm level",
    "valor": -18,
    "unidade": "pct_credito",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-indireto-credito"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in the wage bill of the more exposed non-investigated firms",
    "valor": -12,
    "unidade": "pct_massa_salarial",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-indireto-credito"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Fall in employment at the more exposed non-investigated firms",
    "valor": -10,
    "unidade": "pct_emprego",
    "evid": "evid:f01-nber-efeito-indireto-credito"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "Robust microeconomic evidence of a real cost to the investigated firms and through bank contagion, but it cannot be added to a GDP estimate. Literature cited by the paper itself (Colonnelli and Prem, 2022) finds positive effects of anti-corruption audits on activity in municipalities.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-wilson-fgv-2020",
  "titulo": "Lessons of Operation Car Wash — chapter 2: Anticorruption Policies in Brazil and the Operation Car Wash: Institutional and Economic Analysis",
  "autores": "Ligia Maura Costa, Maria Lucia L. M. Padua Lima, Paulo C. Goldschmidt",
  "instituicao": "org:fgv",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Collective work of the Brazil Institute (Wilson Center, Washington), edited by Fabio Ramazzini Bechara and Paulo C. Goldschmidt and hosted by FGV Direito SP. The preface emphasizes the harm of systemic corruption; the chapters also examine controversial legal aspects of the operation.",
  "ano": "2020",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-wilson-fgv-2020-lessons-car-wash",
  "periodo": "2014–2018 (Petrobras results), 2010–2016 (Sete Brasil)",
  "metodo": "Análise contábil dos resultados da Petrobras (impairments) e estudo de dois casos (Sete Brasil e Comperj), com revisão da literatura sobre custos da corrupção.",
  "pressupostos": [
   "Systemic corruption harms long-term growth."
  ],
  "limitacoes": [
   "The authors state that it is not possible to know how much of Petrobras's write-offs stems from corruption, bad decisions or the market.",
   "It describes the task force's conclusion about Sete Brasil as an accusation; it is not a court decision."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Bribes acknowledged by Sete Brasil",
    "valor": 224000000,
    "unidade": "USD",
    "evid": "evid:f01-wilson-2020-sete-brasil-corrupcao"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Estimated debt of Sete Brasil when it filed for judicial reorganization",
    "valor": 5000000000,
    "unidade": "USD",
    "evid": "evid:f01-wilson-2020-sete-brasil-rj-divida"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "It offers the institutional counterpoint to DIEESE: it attributes the loss of shipbuilding jobs to corruption at Sete Brasil. DIEESE and the consultancies attribute it to the operation.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-ifi-2018",
  "titulo": "Fiscal Monitoring Report (June 2018) — section on GDP and civil construction",
  "autores": "Instituição Fiscal Independente (IFI), Senado Federal",
  "instituicao": "org:ifi-senado",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Technical body of the Federal Senate; not a partisan body.",
  "ano": "2018",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-ifi-raf-2018-06",
  "periodo": "2014–2018",
  "metodo": "Análise de conjuntura com dados do IBGE e do Caged; sem modelo causal.",
  "pressupostos": [],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It cites Lava Jato as one of the factors in the performance of civil construction, without estimating the share of each."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Consecutive quarters of negative contribution from construction to industrial GDP",
    "valor": 14,
    "unidade": "trimestres",
    "evid": "evid:f01-ifi-2018-construcao-lava-jato"
   },
   {
    "rotulo": "Contribution of civil construction to industrial GDP over 12 months (percentage points)",
    "valor": -0.9,
    "unidade": "pp_pib",
    "evid": "evid:f01-ifi-2018-construcao-lava-jato"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "A neutral institutional source that acknowledges the operation's effect on large construction firms, but includes it in a list of factors.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 },
 {
  "id": "estudo:f01-paula-moura-2019",
  "titulo": "Economic consequences of Operation Lava-Jato (opinion article in Valor)",
  "autores": "Luiz Fernando de Paula (IE/UFRJ) e Rafael Moura (Iesp/Uerj)",
  "instituicao": "org:ufrj",
  "natureza_instituicao": "Federal public university (opinion article by two researchers, not original research with its own model).",
  "ano": "2019",
  "fonte": "fonte:f01-valor-paula-moura-2019",
  "periodo": "2014–2017",
  "metodo": "Compilação de dados de terceiros (consultorias, Caged, O Empreiteiro, Petrobras).",
  "pressupostos": [],
  "limitacoes": [
   "It is not an independent estimate; it repeats GO and Tendências.",
   "Primary sources for the numbers are not disclosed in the text."
  ],
  "resultados": [
   {
    "rotulo": "Losses in construction, shipbuilding, heavy engineering and metalworking (citing consultancies)",
    "valor": 142000000000,
    "unidade": "BRL",
    "evid": "evid:f01-paula-moura-2019-consultorias"
   }
  ],
  "divergencias": "A figure possibly identical to GO Associados' (R$142.6 bn); the identity is not demonstrated. Do not add.",
  "estado": "revisado_humano",
  "lote": "f01-economia"
 }
]