Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate

Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV and LCA Consultores), on September 14, 2018, did not present his own estimate of the effect of Lava Jato on GDP; he cited the figure of 15% of GDP attributed by 'some' without endorsing it, and the result of an IMF study according to which corruption news shocks reduce per capita GDP by about 3% in two years (larger effects in emerging economies).

Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post (blogdoibre.fgv.br/node/448) · open original ↗

Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The IMF study measures corruption news in general, in a panel of countries, not Lava Jato. The author argues that the net effect tends to be negative in the short term and possibly positive in the medium and long term. The blog states the author's opinions, not the institution's.

The same post listed as factors in the 2014–2016 recession exogenous shocks (climate, water and energy in 2012–2016; fall in oil prices between late 2014 and early 2016), Petrobras's earlier mismanagement and economic policy errors, and pointed to the lack of clear rules for leniency agreements (MP 703/2015 lapsed in May 2016) as a factor that amplified systemic risk.

Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗

Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Qualitative argument, without numerical decomposition in the text.