R$ 172.2 bn in losses: where it came from

The starting point: the DIEESE study (2021)

In March 2021, the DIEESE — Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies — a research body maintained by the labor movement, not a government agency — released a 14-slide presentation, bearing the DIEESE and CUT logos, estimating the operation's effects between 2014 and 2017. Full study profile.

How the figure was produced

1. Petrobras: the study projected how much the company would have invested in 2015–2017 based on three variables — net revenue, the Brent price and net income — and treated the difference from actual investment as an effect of the way the operation was conducted.
2. Construction: it summed the value of halted projects listed on MPF and TCU websites and of projects abandoned by companies that declared financial inability.
3. Effects: it applied the total as a demand shock in an input-output matrix, which calculates the effect on supplier sectors and on household consumption (income effect).

What to read with care

• Jobs are not layoffs. The 4.44 million sum the figures for 2014 (361 thousand), 2015 (1.13 million), 2016 (1.53 million) and 2017 (1.42 million). A single position that ceases to exist for four years appears four times.
• The indicators are not added together. Wages and taxes are part of value added; the investment reduction is the model's input, not an additional loss.
• The regression attributes to the operation everything that three variables do not explain. Indebtedness, the exchange rate, a change in business plan and in dividend policy — which slide 3 itself mentions — do not appear as separate causes. The coefficients and the list of projects were not published.
• The “without Lava Jato” scenario itself includes a recession. In the study's chart, GDP without the operation would also fall 2.5% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016 (observed: −3.6% and −3.3%). The study attributes to the operation part of the recession, not all of it.
• Nominal values, not adjusted for inflation.

Other studies, including divergent ones

Estimates from other institutions, with their own methods and periods. They are not added to DIEESE's or to one another.

Other numerical estimates

• R$143.0 billion — GO Associados: direct and indirect impact on economic activity in 2015 (about 2.5% of GDP) (2015 (ex ante scenario), GO Associados)
• 1,900,000 jobs — GO Associados: potential jobs affected in 2015 (2015 (ex ante scenario), GO Associados)
• R$87.00 billion — GO Associados with FGV: loss to the economy in a scenario of a 20% drop in Petrobras's investments (April 2015) (2015 (ex ante scenario), GO Associados)
• 1,000,000 jobs — GO Associados with FGV: jobs cut in a scenario of a 20% drop in Petrobras's investments (April 2015) (2015 (ex ante scenario), GO Associados)
• US$30.00 billion — SPE/MF: total effect of the 33% reduction in Petrobras investment in 2015 (about 1.7% of GDP) (2015, Ministry of Finance (Secretariat of Economic Policy))
• R$142.0 billion — Paula and Moura (2019): losses of up to R$142 billion in construction, shipbuilding, heavy engineering and metalworking (citing consulting firms) (2015–2016 (citing the consulting firms' estimates), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)

Employment in the most exposed sectors

Observed data, not estimates. They show the decline in the sectors, but do not say how much of it comes from the operation and how much from the recession, oil or the cut in public investment.

Economic milestones

1. Mar. 15, 2013 Economy

   Petrobras releases 2013–2017 plan with US$236.7 billion in investments

   Plan budgeted at US$236.7 bn, of which US$207.1 bn in projects under implementation and US$29.6 bn under evaluation. It predates Operation Lava Jato (March 2014) and the revelations about suppliers.

   Sources (1)

   Petrobras released the 2013–2017 Business and Management Plan on March 15, 2013, with budgeted investments of US$236.7 billion (2013–2017), of which US$207.1 billion in projects under implementation and US$29.6 billion under evaluation.

   Official dataProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2012 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 29, 2013 · Item 5, Operating and Financial Review – Uses of funds / Capital expenditures (2013–2017 Business and Management Plan) · open original ↗

2. Feb. 25, 2014 Economy

   2014–2018 plan foresees US$220.6 billion in investments

   Budget of US$220.6 bn for 2014–2018 (US$206.8 bn under implementation or bidding; US$13.8 bn under evaluation) and US$42.4 bn for 2014.

   Sources (1)

   Petrobras announced the 2014–2018 Plan on February 25, 2014, with budgeted investments of US$220.6 billion (US$206.8 billion in projects under implementation or bidding and US$13.8 billion in the portfolio under evaluation); the 2014 budget was US$42.4 billion.

   Official dataProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2013 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 30, 2014 · Item 5 – Uses of funds (2014–2018 Plan) · open original ↗

3. Nov. 2014 Economy

   Arrests of construction company executives and downgrade of risk ratings

   After the 7th phase of Lava Jato (November 2014), with arrests of executives of several construction companies, agencies downgraded the companies and credit dried up, according to Galvão Engenharia and OAS. Transparency International assessed at the time that there would be a market impact. The exact date of the phase is in another entry in the collection.

   Sources (3)

   Galvão Engenharia and Galvão Participações filed for judicial reorganization on March 25, 2015, in the Rio de Janeiro courts; the report does not give the total amount of debt; the company cited as causes Petrobras's suspension of payments in 2014, the downgrade of its risk rating and the end of credit after the arrests of construction company executives in November 2014, the lack of a BNDES bridge loan for the BR-153, and reported having closed the industrial engineering division and cut about 9 thousand jobs in 2015.

   Document described in a news reportSingle source

   Source: Galvão Engenharia, envolvida na Lava Jato, pede recuperação judicial — Tribuna PR, Mar. 26, 2015 · News report of March 26, 2015 · open original ↗

   OAS filed for judicial reorganization of nine group companies on March 31, 2015, in the São Paulo courts, with total group debt of R$9.2 billion, of which R$8 billion was included in the filing; management attributed the filing to severe credit restrictions since the end of 2014.

   Document described in a news reportSeveral independent sources

   Source: OAS pede recuperação judicial de nove empresas (Zero Hora, reproduzida pela CBIC) — Zero Hora / CBIC, Apr. 1, 2015 · Zero Hora report of April 1, 2015, republished by CBIC · open original ↗

   In an interview with BBC Brasil (November 14, 2014), right after the seventh phase, Transparency International's director for Latin America, Alejandro Salas, said there would be an impact on the market because the companies' names were known, that the construction companies needed to quickly prove they were clean, and that the case opened an opportunity for reforms that take time.

   StatementSingle source

   Source: Caso Petrobras representa chance de reformas por mais transparência, diz ONG — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Nov. 14, 2014 · Interview of November 14, 2014, republished by IHU on November 17, 2014 · open original ↗

4. Dec. 29, 2014 Economy

   Petrobras precautionarily blocks companies from 23 groups named in testimony about the cartel

   The Executive Board created sanction-review committees and ordered the temporary bar on contracting and on bidding of the companies of the listed groups, based on testimony from Paulo Roberto Costa, Alberto Youssef and cooperating witnesses from Toyo Setal and Setal. Inclusion is based on testimony, not on a conviction.

   Sources (2)

   On December 29, 2014, Petrobras's Executive Board created sanction analysis committees (CAASE) and ordered the precautionary blocking of companies from 23 economic groups named as participants in a cartel in testimony by Paulo Roberto Costa, Alberto Youssef, and the cooperating witnesses of Toyo Setal and Setal, to which the company had access on December 3, 2014.

   Official documentProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K (comunicado de 29/12/2014): comissões CAASE e bloqueio cautelar de empresas — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Dec. 29, 2014 · 6-K of December 30, 2014 (statement of December 29, 2014), numbered list 1–23 · open original ↗

   Petrobras's own counts vary: 23 groups in the statement of December 29, 2014; 24 groups in the 2014 20-F; 32 companies from 23 groups in 2014, plus two more companies in 2015, three with the restriction lifted and 31 still suspended, according to the 2015 20-F.

   Official documentDisputed

   Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2015 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 28, 2016 · Item 3 – Risk Factors (suppliers); 2014 20-F, Item 3 – Risk Factors · open original ↗

5. Jan. 14, 2015 Economy

   Press reports that OAS will file for judicial reorganization; debt cited at R$7.7 billion

   Estado de Minas reported that OAS, identified as a member of the Petrobras works cartel, was expected to file for judicial reorganization within the next two weeks. The filing was only made on March 31.

   Sources (1)

   On January 14, 2015, Estado de Minas reported that OAS, named as part of the Petrobras construction cartel, was expected to file for judicial reorganization within the following two weeks, with debt of R$7.7 billion; the filing was only made on March 31, 2015.

   News reportSingle source

   Source: Empreiteira envolvida em cartel na Petrobras vai pedir recuperação judicial — Estado de Minas, Jan. 14, 2015 · News report of January 14, 2015 · open original ↗

6. Feb. 24, 2015 Economy

   Petrobras loses investment grade at Moody's

   Moody's removed investment grade from all of the company's ratings on February 24, 2015; S&P (September) and Fitch (December 2015) followed. Petrobras lists, among the agencies' concerns, liquidity, negative free cash flow, the size of the debt, the fall in oil prices and the devaluation of the real.

   Sources (1)

   Petrobras lost its investment grade from Moody's on February 24, 2015, from S&P in September 2015, and from Fitch in December 2015; the agencies cited liquidity pressure, negative free cash flow, the size of the debt, and, among other factors, the devaluation of the real and the fall in oil prices.

   Official documentProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2015 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 28, 2016 · Item 3 – Risk Factors (indebtedness / credit ratings); 2014 20-F, same section for Moody's · open original ↗

7. Mar. 25, 2015 Economy

   Galvão Engenharia files for judicial reorganization in Rio de Janeiro

   Galvão Engenharia and Galvão Participações filed for judicial reorganization, attributing the crisis to Petrobras's suspension of payments, to the downgrade after the executives' arrests and to the lack of credit. It stated that it had cut about 9 thousand jobs in 2015. The company denies participation in a cartel.

   Sources (1)

   Galvão Engenharia and Galvão Participações filed for judicial reorganization on March 25, 2015, in the Rio de Janeiro courts; the report does not give the total amount of debt; the company cited as causes Petrobras's suspension of payments in 2014, the downgrade of its risk rating and the end of credit after the arrests of construction company executives in November 2014, the lack of a BNDES bridge loan for the BR-153, and reported having closed the industrial engineering division and cut about 9 thousand jobs in 2015.

   Document described in a news reportSingle source

   Source: Galvão Engenharia, envolvida na Lava Jato, pede recuperação judicial — Tribuna PR, Mar. 26, 2015 · News report of March 26, 2015 · open original ↗

8. Mar. 31, 2015 Economy

   OAS files for judicial reorganization of nine companies in São Paulo

   Group's total debt of R$9.2 billion, of which R$8 billion in the filing. Management attributed the filing to credit restriction since late 2014.

   Sources (1)

   OAS filed for judicial reorganization of nine group companies on March 31, 2015, in the São Paulo courts, with total group debt of R$9.2 billion, of which R$8 billion was included in the filing; management attributed the filing to severe credit restrictions since the end of 2014.

   Document described in a news reportSeveral independent sources

   Source: OAS pede recuperação judicial de nove empresas (Zero Hora, reproduzida pela CBIC) — Zero Hora / CBIC, Apr. 1, 2015 · Zero Hora report of April 1, 2015, republished by CBIC · open original ↗

9. Apr. 22, 2015 Economy

   Petrobras publishes audited 2014 financial statements: write-off of R$6.194 bn, losses of R$44.636 bn and net loss of R$21.587 bn

   The 2014 financial statements, published late, report the write-off of improperly capitalized costs (recognized in 3Q14), impairment losses, largely at the RNEST-2 and Comperj refineries, and a net loss of R$21.587 bn. The company states that the losses do not stem mainly from improper payments.

   Sources (4)

   Petrobras wrote off R$6.194 billion of capitalized costs that represent amounts overpaid in the acquisition of fixed assets in previous years, because of the payment scheme revealed by Lava Jato; the write-off was recognized in 3Q14 (US$2.527 billion per the 20-F).

   Official dataProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K: resultados do 4T14 e do exercício de 2014 (em reais), com nota sobre a Operação Lava Jato — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 22, 2015 · Note on the Lava Jato Operation; 2014 consolidated income statement; 2014 20-F, Item 5 (Write-Offs of Overpayments Incorrectly Capitalized) · open original ↗

   The 2014 net loss attributable to shareholders was R$21.587 billion, which Petrobras attributes to impairment losses of R$44.636 billion (domestic refineries R$30.976 billion; E&P R$10.002 billion due to lower international oil prices; petrochemicals R$2.978 billion) and to the write-off of R$6.194 billion.

   Official dataProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K: resultados do 4T14 e do exercício de 2014 (em reais), com nota sobre a Operação Lava Jato — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 22, 2015 · first page of the statement (summary); 'Key events' · open original ↗

   Petrobras stated that the difference between the fair value and the book value of its assets was significantly greater than any reasonable estimate of improper payments and that this difference does not originate primarily from improper payments, but from other sources, such as the measurement method and changes in the business context (exchange rate, discount rate, prices, and margins).

   Official documentProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K: resultados do 4T14 e do exercício de 2014 (em reais), com nota sobre a Operação Lava Jato — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 22, 2015 · Note on the Lava Jato Operation – Background · open original ↗

   Petrobras explained that the postponements of Comperj and RNEST-2 were measures to preserve cash and a response to the difficulties the Lava Jato investigation created for suppliers, and attributed the losses mainly to project planning deficiencies, a higher discount rate (risk premium of the stalled project), delays in expected cash inflows, and lower projected economic growth.

   Official documentProven in a document

   Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2014 (demonstrações auditadas, nota 3 sobre a Lava Jato) — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), May 15, 2015 · Item 5 – Impairment of Assets (2014); same explanation in the 4Q14 statement, item 'domestic refineries' · open original ↗

10. May 7, 2015 Economy

    AGU says 51 thousand CNPJs depend on the 23 investigated contractors and defends leniency agreements

    Attorney General Luís Inácio Adams defended applying the Anticorruption Law without shutting down companies en masse. The head of the CGU said the agreements require repair of the damage and review by the TCU. Four contractors had already approached the CGU.

    Sources (1)

    On May 7, 2015, Attorney General Luís Inácio Adams said at a seminar on the Anticorruption Law that 51 thousand CNPJs of suppliers, investors and service providers depend on the 23 investigated contractors, and defended applying the law without 'serial shutdown' of companies; the head of the CGU, Valdir Simão, stated that leniency agreements would only be concluded with repair of the damage and preservation of the public interest, and that the TCU would need to weigh in.

    StatementSingle source

    Source: AGU: Lava Jato pode afetar mais de 51 mil empresas — Gazeta do Povo (Agência O Globo), May 7, 2015 · News report of May 7, 2015 · open original ↗

11. June 26, 2015 Economy

    Board approves 2015–2019 plan with US$130.3 bn, 37% below the previous one

    Plan focused on deleveraging and on E&P in the pre-salt (83% of the total); refining investment is restricted, with 11% of the downstream segment going to complete the Abreu e Lima refinery. Production targets reduced because of postponements and delays, largely due to limitations of Brazilian suppliers.

    Sources (2)

    The Board approved the 2015–2019 Plan on June 26, 2015, with total investments of US$130.3 billion (E&P 108.6; Supply 12.8; Gas and Power 6.3; other areas 2.6), a 37% reduction from the previous plan.

    Official dataProven in a document

    Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K (29/06/2015): Plano de Negócios e Gestão 2015–2019 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), June 29, 2015 · 6-K of June 29, 2015, table '2015-2019 Business and Management Plan (US$ Billion)' and paragraph on the reduction · open original ↗

    In the 2015–2019 plan statement, Petrobras reported that production targets were updated due to postponements of less mature projects and delays in the delivery of production units, largely because of limitations of Brazilian suppliers.

    Official documentProven in a document

    Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K (29/06/2015): Plano de Negócios e Gestão 2015–2019 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), June 29, 2015 · 6-K of June 29, 2015, section 'Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve' · open original ↗

12. Aug. 12, 2015 Economy

    GO Associados releases impact estimate of about R$143 billion (2.5% of GDP) in 2015

    Ex ante input-output scenario, with a 37% cut in Petrobras investments and a 30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors; the consultancy says most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations.

    Sources (3)

    GO Associados estimated, in August 2015, a direct and indirect impact of about R$143 billion (approximately 2.5% of GDP) on 2015 economic activity, in a scenario of a 37% cut in Petrobras investments (2015–2019 plan) and a 30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors.

    Document described in a news reportEstimate

    Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, opening paragraphs and assumptions box (the GO study was not opened) · open original ↗

    In the same scenario, GO Associados estimated a loss of about 1.9 million jobs (services ~1.2 million, industry 426 thousand, agriculture 245 thousand), a contraction of R$22.4 billion in the wage bill and R$9.4 billion of tax revenue lost.

    Document described in a news reportEstimate

    Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sector tables · open original ↗

    GO Associados used an input-output methodology applied to the reduction in Petrobras investments and public works, stated that the effect is amplified in a recessionary period and said that most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations, without quantifying that alternative scenario.

    Document described in a news reportSingle source

    Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sections 'Assumptions' and 'Scenarios' · open original ↗

13. Oct. 21, 2015 Economy

    SPE/MF document estimates more than 2 points of GDP in effects from the reduction in investments by Petrobras and contractors

    The federal government calculated an effect of 1.7% of GDP for the 33% Petrobras cut and 0.4% for the contractors' pullback, and said the fall in oil prices was one of the main factors in 2015.

    Sources (3)

    The SPE/MF estimated (October 21, 2015) that Petrobras's investment equals about 1.8% of GDP; the 33% reduction in 2015 (from US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn) would take 0.6 point off GDP directly and, with a multiplier of 2.5 (direct, indirect and income effect, input-output matrix cited from FGV), about US$30 billion or 1.7% of GDP.

    Study estimateEstimate

    Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Sections 2, 3.1 and 3.2, pp. 3–5 (Table 1, p. 4) · open original ↗

    The same document estimated that the reduction in the contractors' investments (15% on an investment of about 2.8% of GDP, Tendências assumptions) would correspond to 0.4% of GDP, and that the sum of the direct, indirect and 'lateral' impacts may have exceeded 2 percentage points of GDP.

    Study estimateEstimate

    Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 4, p. 6 · open original ↗

    The SPE/MF document says that the change in commodity prices, including oil, is one of the main factors of impact on growth since 2014, 'especially in 2015,' and that, in the oil and gas chain, 'other factors, of a non-economic nature' also played a preponderant role in the behavior of the sector's main company.

    Official documentProven in a document

    Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 1, p. 1 · open original ↗

14. Dec. 2, 2015 Economy

    Tendências estimates that Lava Jato subtracts 2.5 points from 2015 GDP; report records criticism and defenses of the operation

    BBC Brasil published estimates from Tendências and GO and opinions from Transparency International, academics and prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol on the relationship between the operation and the recession.

    Sources (3)

    Tendências Consultoria estimated, in December 2015, that Lava Jato was subtracting about 2.5 percentage points from 2015 GDP; without its effects, the contraction would be approximately 0.7% to 1.3%, according to economist Alessandra Ribeiro, rather than 3.2% (the consultancy's projection at the time).

    Document described in a news reportEstimate

    Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, paragraphs on Tendências · open original ↗

    Tendências calculated that Petrobras's investment was equivalent to about 2% of GDP and that of the large construction companies to about 2.8%, so that the affected companies together accounted for almost 5% of GDP; total investment was 17% to 20% of GDP.

    Document described in a news reportSingle source

    Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, methodology section · open original ↗

    In the same report, professor André Biancarelli (Unicamp) said the fight against corruption should not be subordinated to the needs of companies; Fabiano Angélico, of Transparency International, argued that society gains from clear rules and that laid-off workers would be absorbed by mid-sized companies; prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol stated that corruption, and not its investigation, harms the economy, using an analogy attributed to Sergio Moro: the blame lies with whoever committed the crime, not with whoever found the body.

    StatementSingle source

    Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, opinions section · open original ↗

15. Dec. 15, 2015 Economy

    Petrobras creates an internal committee to investigate the Drilling Rig Project and the agreements with Sete Brasil

    In the same year the company recorded losses of US$44 mn (direct) and US$40 mn (through FIP Sondas) due to the worsening of Sete Brasil's financial situation and the postponement of most of its constructions.

    Sources (1)

    In 2015, Petrobras recognized losses of US$44 million on its direct investment in Sete Brasil and US$40 million via FIP Sondas, due to the worsening of the company's economic and financial conditions, postponement of most of its construction, and uncertainty about the continuity of the projects; on December 15, 2015 it set up an internal committee to investigate possible irregularities in the creation of the Rigs Project.

    Official documentProven in a document

    Source: Petrobras — Form 20-F do exercício de 2015 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Apr. 28, 2016 · Note 14.2 (impairment of investments); Item 6 – internal investigation committees · open original ↗

16. Dec. 18, 2015 Economy

    Provisional Measure 703 changes the rules on leniency agreements

    The MP amended the Anticorruption Law to provide for leniency agreements. The Planalto records it as no longer in force; IBRE dates the loss of effect to May 2016 and points to it as a factor that increased uncertainty about the rules.

    Sources (2)

    Provisional Measure No. 703, of December 18, 2015, amended the Anticorruption Law (Law 12.846/2013) to provide for leniency agreements; the Planalto page marks the measure as 'no longer in force.'

    Official documentProven in a document

    Source: Medida Provisória nº 703, de 18 de dezembro de 2015 (acordos de leniência) — Office of the President of the Republic, Dec. 18, 2015 · Heading and art. 1 · open original ↗

    The same post listed as factors in the 2014–2016 recession exogenous shocks (climate, water and energy in 2012–2016; fall in oil prices between late 2014 and early 2016), Petrobras's earlier mismanagement and economic policy errors, and pointed to the lack of clear rules for leniency agreements (MP 703/2015 lapsed in May 2016) as a factor that amplified systemic risk.

    Study estimateSingle source

    Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗

17. Dec. 30, 2015 Economy

    Last trading session of 2015: Petrobras market value of R$101.3 bn (US$25.9 bn), the lowest of the year-ends from 2012 to 2019

    Reproducible calculation using B3 prices and the number of shares from the 20-Fs. Average Brent fell from US$108.56 (2013) to US$52.32 (2015) and the average dollar rose from R$2.16 to R$3.34. It is a measure of share price, not of cash, and is not attributed to a single cause.

    Sources (3)

    Calculated as shares outstanding (cover of the 20-Fs) × closing price of PETR3/PETR4 on the last trading day of the year (B3), Petrobras's market value was R$254.9 billion (December 28, 2012), R$214.7 billion (December 30, 2013), R$127.5 billion (December 30, 2014), R$101.3 billion (December 30, 2015), R$209.4 billion (December 29, 2016), R$216.0 billion (December 28, 2017), R$316.1 billion (December 28, 2018), and R$407.2 billion (December 30, 2019); in dollars, US$124.7 billion, 91.6, 48.0, 25.9, 64.2, 65.3, 81.6, and 101.0 billion.

    Study estimateEstimate

    Source: B3 — Séries Históricas de Cotações (COTAHIST anual), arquivos de 2012 a 2019 — B3 S.A. — Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão, Dec. 30, 2019 · calculation in series/valor_mercado_petrobras.csv (scripts/petr_fechamento_b3.py and gera_valor_mercado.py) · open original ↗

    The EIA records an average annual Brent of US$111.26 (2011), 111.63 (2012), 108.56 (2013), 98.97 (2014), 52.32 (2015), 43.64 (2016), 54.13 (2017), 71.34 (2018), and 64.30 (2019).

    Official dataProven in a document

    Source: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) — série anual RBRTE — U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Oct. 21, 2026 · annual table 'Europe Brent Spot Price FOB', 2010's row · open original ↗

    According to series 1 of the Central Bank's SGS (dollar, selling rate), the annual average exchange rate was R$2.1605 (2013), 2.3547 (2014), 3.3387 (2015), 3.4833 (2016), 3.1925 (2017), 3.6558 (2018), and 3.9461 (2019); at the end of 2013, 2.3426; 2014, 2.6562; 2015, 3.9048.

    Official dataProven in a document

    Source: Banco Central do Brasil — SGS série 1 (taxa de câmbio livre, dólar americano, venda, diária) — Central Bank of Brazil, Dec. 31, 2019 · calculation in series/cambio_anual.csv (scripts/gera_series_macro.py) · open original ↗

18. Jan. 12, 2016 Economy

    Petrobras cuts 2015–2019 plan from US$130.3 bn to US$98.4 bn

    The company attributes the US$32 bn reduction to portfolio optimization (US$21.2 bn) and exchange-rate effect (US$10.7 bn), in light of new oil price and exchange-rate levels.

    Sources (1)

    On January 12, 2016, the Board approved adjustments: the capex of the 2015–2019 plan fell from US$130.3 billion to US$98.4 billion (a reduction of US$32 billion), which the company breaks down into portfolio optimization (–US$21.2 billion) and exchange rate effect (–US$10.7 billion), as a function of new oil price and exchange rate levels.

    Official dataProven in a document

    Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K (12/01/2016): ajustes ao Plano de Negócios e Gestão 2015–2019 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Jan. 12, 2016 · 6-K of January 12, 2016, paragraphs after the investment table · open original ↗

19. Mar. 8, 2016 Economy

    Mendes Júnior files for judicial reorganization in Belo Horizonte

    Filing with the 1st Business Court of Belo Horizonte (case 0579058-27.2016.8.13.0024). By August 2016, the workforce had fallen from about 15 thousand to 3.6 thousand workers, and the CGU had declared it unfit to bid.

    Sources (1)

    Mendes Júnior filed for judicial reorganization on March 8, 2016, in the 1st Business Court of Belo Horizonte (case 0579058-27.2016.8.13.0024); in August 2016 IstoÉ Dinheiro recorded that the workforce had fallen from about 15 thousand to 3.6 thousand workers, that the CGU had declared it unfit to bid and that its chief executive had been convicted to almost 20 years.

    Document described in a news reportSeveral independent sources

    Source: Mendes Junior requested its judicial reorganization proceeding in Brazil — Mondaq (law firm note), Mar. 2016 · Mondaq note (date and case number); IstoÉ Dinheiro August 29, 2016 (employment, unfitness) · open original ↗

20. Mar. 9, 2016 Economy

    Moro tells businesspeople the crisis is not Lava Jato's fault

    In a talk at Lide Paraná, judge Sergio Moro said the blame for the recession and unemployment does not lie with Lava Jato (Jornal do Brasil, March 10, 2016).

21. Apr. 2016 Economy

    Sete Brasil files for judicial reorganization in Rio de Janeiro

    The company, created in 2010 to supply drilling rigs to Petrobras, attributed the crisis to the fall in oil prices and the Lava Jato scandals. News reports diverge between April and May 2016 on the filing; the exact date was not obtained.

    Sources (2)

    Sete Brasil filed for judicial reorganization in Rio de Janeiro in April 2016 (3rd Business Court), citing the fall in oil prices and the Lava Jato scandals as causes; the company was created in 2010 to build rigs for the pre-salt and its shareholders reportedly invested R$8.3 billion.

    News reportSeveral independent sources

    Source: Sete Brasil entra com pedido de recuperação judicial — Jornal do Brasil, Apr. 30, 2016 · News report of April 30, 2016 · open original ↗

    The same chapter states that corruption at Petrobras and its suppliers, aggravated by the fall in oil prices in 2015, led Sete Brasil to file for judicial reorganization at the end of April 2016, with debt estimated at about US$5 billion, two-thirds owed to the federal government through public banks and funds (Banco do Brasil US$1 billion; Shipbuilding Guarantee Fund US$1.3 billion; FI-FGTS US$0.7 billion; Caixa US$0.5 billion); in April 2016, the degree of completion of the contracts ranged from 4.78% to 89.96% per rig (Table 7).

    Study estimateSingle source

    Source: Lessons of Operation Car Wash: A legal, institutional, and economic analysis (cap. 2, Costa, Lima e Goldschmidt) — Brazil Institute, Wilson Center (eds. Fabio Ramazzini Bechara and Paulo C. Goldschmidt; hosted by FGV Direito SP), Nov. 2020 · Ch. 2, pp. 42–44 (Table 7) · open original ↗

22. Aug. 10, 2016 Economy

    News report records a drop from more than 82 thousand to 43 thousand employees in the shipbuilding industry in two years

    Sinaval data; the report attributes the crisis to the Lava Jato scandal and the international situation (fall in oil prices, global idle shipyard capacity).

    Sources (2)

    Estadão Conteúdo (August 10, 2016) recorded, with Sinaval data, a drop from more than 82 thousand employees at the end of 2014 to 43 thousand in June 2016 (a loss of about 38 thousand), and attributed the crisis not only to the scandal detailed by Lava Jato but also to the international situation: fall in oil prices, lower world demand and global idle capacity (shipyard capacity utilization fell from 85% in 2008 to 56% in 2014, OECD data); it also recorded Transpetro's cancellation of an order for 17 ships and signs that Petrobras could cancel the last two hulls in Rio Grande.

    News reportSeveral independent sources

    Source: Em dois anos, indústria naval corta 38 mil empregados — Gazeta do Povo (Estadão Conteúdo), Aug. 10, 2016 · News report of August 10, 2016 · open original ↗

    According to Sinaval, the shipbuilding industry had 82,472 workers in December 2014, 57,048 in 2015 (month not given) and 43,745 in the first half of 2016, a drop of 7,331 positions in the half-year.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Queda no barril do petróleo, corrupção e Lava Jato desmantelam indústria naval — Brasil de Fato, Jan. 5, 2017 · News report of January 5, 2017, employment section · open original ↗

23. Sept. 19, 2016 Economy

    Board approves 2017–2021 plan, 25% below the January 2016 revision

    US$60.6 bn in E&P and US$12.4 bn in Refining and Natural Gas; total of US$74.1 bn according to Agência Brasil. It foresees US$19.5 bn in partnerships and divestments in 2017–2018.

    Sources (2)

    The Board approved the 2017–2021 Business and Management Plan on September 19, 2016 (statement of September 20, 2016): investments reduced by 25% relative to the January 2016 revision, with US$60.6 billion in Exploration and Production and US$12.4 billion in Refining and Natural Gas, and US$19.5 billion expected from partnerships and divestments in 2017–2018.

    Official dataProven in a document

    Source: Petrobras — Form 6-K (20/09/2016): Plano Estratégico e Plano de Negócios e Gestão 2017–2021 — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. — Petrobras (SEC), Sept. 20, 2016 · 6-K of September 20, 2016, sections on the investment portfolio and partnerships/divestments · open original ↗

    Agência Brasil reported that the forecast for the 2017–2021 plan was US$74.1 billion, a 25% drop from the previous plan (US$98.4 billion), approved on September 19, 2016 and released on September 20, 2016.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Petrobras reduz em 25% plano de investimentos para os próximos cinco anos — Agência Brasil, Sept. 20, 2016 · text of the report · open original ↗

24. July 17, 2017 Economy

    UTC Participações files for judicial reorganization in São Paulo, debt of about R$3.4 billion

    Filing with the 2nd Bankruptcy and Judicial Reorganization Court of São Paulo. The group had lost more than 20 thousand jobs since 2013 and Constran's revenue fell from R$1.3 bn (2014) to R$758 mn (2015), according to the trade press.

    Sources (2)

    UTC Participações filed for judicial reorganization on July 17, 2017, in the 2nd Bankruptcy and Judicial Reorganization Court of São Paulo, to restructure debts of about R$3.4 billion owed to banks and suppliers.

    Document described in a news reportSingle source

    Source: Lava Jato: UTC pede recuperação judicial — Jornal do Brasil, July 17, 2017 · News report of July 17, 2017 · open original ↗

    Estadão Conteúdo (April 15, 2017) recorded, with data from the magazine O Empreiteiro and from Fitch: Constran (UTC) revenues fell from R$1.3 billion (2014) to R$758 million (2015), with more than 20 thousand layoffs since 2013 (74% of the workforce); Carioca Christiani-Nielsen lost 22% of revenue in 2014; Galvão had revenues of R$3.8 billion until 2014; Constran rose to 13th in the ranking in 2014 and fell to 18th in 2015; the contractors' backlog of works deteriorated.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Construtoras queimam carteira de obras — IstoÉ Dinheiro (Estadão Conteúdo), Apr. 15, 2017 · News report of April 15, 2017 · open original ↗

25. July 6, 2018 Economy

    Petrobras approves commitment agreement with Odebrecht, opening an exit from the precautionary block

    According to eixos, the agreement provides for an integrity program and would allow Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção (after completing improvements) and Ocyan to exit the block imposed in December 2014. Primary announcement not located.

    Sources (1)

    eixos reported that on July 6, 2018 Petrobras approved an integrity commitment agreement with Odebrecht, which would allow the lifting of the precautionary blocking of Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção (subject to reassessment after completing improvements) and of Ocyan (with reassessment of the risk grade upon signing).

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Três anos de bloqueio cautelar da Petrobras: quem entrou, quem saiu e quem nunca entrou — eixos, July 6, 2018 · text of the report · open original ↗

26. Nov. 28, 2018 Economy

    Constellation, of the Queiroz Galvão group, prepares judicial reorganization filing with debt of US$1.7 billion

    The oil and gas company attributed the loss of cash to the investigations and the fall in oil prices, which led Petrobras to cut spending on platform leases. The report describes preparation, not a filing.

    Sources (1)

    On November 28, 2018, InfoMoney reported that Constellation, an oil and gas company of the Queiroz Galvão group (family-owned, 74%), was preparing a judicial reorganization filing with debt of US$1.7 billion, attributing the loss of cash to the Lava Jato investigations and the fall in oil prices, which led Petrobras to cut spending on renewing rig leases; seven of its eight rigs would be idle.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Empresa de óleo e gás da Queiroz Galvão prepara recuperação judicial — InfoMoney, Nov. 28, 2018 · News report of November 28, 2018 · open original ↗

27. June 17, 2019 Economy

    Odebrecht files for judicial reorganization with declared debt of R$98.5 billion; judge accepts it the next day

    Filing with the 1st Bankruptcy Court of São Paulo, accepted on June 18, 2019, with Alvarez & Marsal as judicial administrator. Braskem was left out of the filing.

    Sources (1)

    Odebrecht filed for judicial reorganization on June 17, 2019, in the 1st Bankruptcy Court of São Paulo, with declared debt of R$98.5 billion; Judge João de Oliveira Rodrigues Filho accepted the filing on June 18, 2019 and appointed Alvarez & Marsal as judicial administrator; Braskem was left out of the filing.

    Document described in a news reportSeveral independent sources

    Source: Justiça aceita pedido de recuperação judicial da Odebrecht — Poder360, June 18, 2019 · News report of June 18, 2019 · open original ↗

28. Dec. 16, 2019 Economy

    Dallagnol reacts to Toffoli interview about companies

    Dallagnol said that blaming Lava Jato for the failure of companies is irresponsible (Jovem Pan).

29. Dec. 20, 2019 Economy

    Petrobras approves agreement that keeps 4 and cancels 24 of Sete Brasil's 28 rigs

    Charter contracts for 4 rigs kept for 10 years at US$299 thousand per day; those for 24 rigs terminated; Petrobras leaves the ownership structure.

    Sources (1)

    On December 20, 2019, Petrobras approved the final terms of an agreement with Sete Brasil: charter and operation contracts for 4 rigs were kept for 10 years at US$299 thousand per day, and the contracts for the other 24 were terminated (Sete Brasil was to build 28 rigs for the pre-salt); Petrobras would leave the group's ownership structure.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Petrobras aprova acordo com Sete Brasil que cancela contratos de 24 sondas — Exame, Dec. 20, 2019 · News report of December 20, 2019 · open original ↗

30. Nov. 27, 2023 Economy

    Petrobras announces resumption of the former Comperj as the GasLub Itaboraí Complex

    According to Brasil de Fato, announcement made alongside the 2024–2028 strategic plan; refining units planned for after 2028. Primary announcement not located.

    Sources (1)

    Brasil de Fato reported that, on November 27, 2023, when announcing the 2024–2028 strategic plan, Petrobras confirmed the resumption of the former Comperj under the name Polo GasLub Itaboraí, focused on diesel, with refining units planned for after 2028.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Em anúncio de plano estratégico, Petrobras confirma retomada do Comperj, agora GasLub, em Itaboraí (RJ) — Brasil de Fato, Nov. 29, 2023 · text of the report · open original ↗

31. Feb. 1, 2024 Economy

    Toffoli suspends fines under the Odebrecht/Novonor leniency agreement with the MPF

    Novonor alleged serious financial difficulties and task force excesses revealed by Operation Spoofing; the justice cited reasonable doubt about the voluntariness of the agreement and authorized review of the terms with the PGR, CGU and AGU. The total of the agreement is R$8.5 billion, according to the article.

    Sources (1)

    On February 1, 2024, STF Justice Dias Toffoli suspended payment of the fines under the leniency agreement signed in 2016 by Odebrecht (now Novonor) with the MPF (R$8.5 billion, according to the article) and authorized the company to renegotiate the terms with the PGR, CGU, and AGU, citing reasonable doubt as to the company's voluntariness in signing; Novonor had alleged serious financial difficulties in meeting the obligations and excesses by the task force revealed by Operation Spoofing.

    Judicial or administrative decisionSingle source

    Source: Toffoli suspende multas de R$ 8,5 bilhões da Novonor em acordo da Lava Jato — InfoMoney, Feb. 1, 2024 · News report of February 1, 2024 · open original ↗

32. Dec. 2024 Economy

    Rio court declares Sete Brasil bankrupt

    According to Poder360 (December 18, 2024), the 3rd Business Court estimated liabilities of R$36 billion and stated that the group could no longer be turned around. The company said it would appeal. The exact date of the decision was not given.

    Sources (2)

    The TJ-RJ (3rd Business Court, Judge Luiz Alberto Alves) declared Sete Brasil bankrupt, according to a report of December 18, 2024, estimating liabilities of R$36 billion and stating that the group no longer has the conditions to recover; the request came from the judicial administrator and the Rio de Janeiro state Public Prosecutor's Office; the company said it would appeal.

    Document described in a news reportSingle source

    Source: Justiça decreta falência de empresa de sondas alvo da Lava Jato — Poder360, Dec. 18, 2024 · News report of December 18, 2024 · open original ↗

    According to Movimento Econômico (February 28, 2024), Sete Brasil owed about R$17 billion to Brazilian shipyards, Petrobras, and the Shipbuilding Guarantee Fund; in 2019 the CGU recorded liabilities of R$17.4 billion with a low probability of recovery; Petrobras recognized a loss of R$5.6 billion in 2016; the FGCN contributed R$6.3 billion and the FI-FGTS R$2.5 billion; Atlântico Sul, Enseada, and Rio Grande suspended contracts after payments ended.

    Document described in a news reportSingle source

    Source: Sete Brasil: pedido de falência e dívida de R$ 17 bi — Movimento Econômico, Feb. 28, 2024 · News report of February 28, 2024 · open original ↗

33. June 16, 2025 Economy

    Petrobras signs R$4.9 bn contracts to resume RNEST Train 2

    According to Movimento Econômico, contracts with Consag Engenharia; work interrupted in 2015; completion expected for late 2029. Primary announcement not located.

    Sources (1)

    Movimento Econômico reported that, on June 16, 2025, contracts worth R$4.9 billion were signed with Consag Engenharia to resume RNEST's Train 2, interrupted in 2015 'in the context of Operation Lava Jato', with completion expected at the end of 2029.

    News reportSingle source

    Source: Petrobras retoma Trem 2 da Abreu e Lima com contratos de R$ 4,9 bilhões — Movimento Econômico, June 16, 2025 · text of the report · open original ↗