Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB

The SPE/MF estimated (October 21, 2015) that Petrobras's investment equals about 1.8% of GDP; the 33% reduction in 2015 (from US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn) would take 0.6 point off GDP directly and, with a multiplier of 2.5 (direct, indirect and income effect, input-output matrix cited from FGV), about US$30 billion or 1.7% of GDP.

Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Sections 2, 3.1 and 3.2, pp. 3–5 (Table 1, p. 4) · open original ↗

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: It measures the effect of the reduction in Petrobras's investment, which the document attributes mainly to the fall in oil prices in 2015, also citing factors of a non-economic nature and compliance issues; it does not name the operation. Multiplier from 2010 applied to 2015.

The same document estimated that the reduction in the contractors' investments (15% on an investment of about 2.8% of GDP, Tendências assumptions) would correspond to 0.4% of GDP, and that the sum of the direct, indirect and 'lateral' impacts may have exceeded 2 percentage points of GDP.

Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 4, p. 6 · open original ↗

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The text dates the result as 'in 2014,' probably a typo for 2015 (document of October 2015). Do not add 1.7% + 0.4% to the GO or Tendências estimates: they use overlapping assumptions.

The SPE/MF document says that the change in commodity prices, including oil, is one of the main factors of impact on growth since 2014, 'especially in 2015,' and that, in the oil and gas chain, 'other factors, of a non-economic nature' also played a preponderant role in the behavior of the sector's main company.

Excerpt: “outros fatores, de natureza não econômica, também têm tido um papel preponderante”

Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 1, p. 1 · open original ↗

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The document does not name Lava Jato in this passage; the reading that 'factors of a non-economic nature' refers to the investigations and the reassessment of assets is an interpretation of the context.

The SPE/MF document noted an average decline of about 20% in global investment by oil producers in 2015 (source Barclays Research), which would correspond to a significant fraction of Petrobras's reduction.

Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 3.3, p. 5 (Chart 3) · open original ↗

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Market forecast; context for Petrobras's 33% cut, which was larger than the average.