Cedeplar — Federal University of Minas Gerais

A Cedeplar-UFMG study (Dias Filho, Resende and Carvalho) estimated, by ARIMAX with quarterly data from 2002.1 to 2023.1, that the Lava Jato intercept dummy (post-plea-agreement period, from 2014.2) has a negative sign and is significant at 5% (coefficient -1.250; standard error 0.499; p = 0.014) in the private investment equation, and that the interaction dummies indicate lower sensitivity of investment to credit.

Source: Operação Lava Jato, convenções e investimento privado — Proceedings of an academic event (even3); authors from Cedeplar-UFMG, 2024 · Section 5, Tables 4 and 5; Final considerations · open original ↗

The Cedeplar study mentions the DIEESE study (2021) and reproduces, in Table 1, DIEESE's results (4.4 million jobs, R$244 bn in value added, R$47 bn in taxes, R$85 bn in wage bill, R$20 bn in social security and FGTS, 3.6% of GDP); it adds its own calculation of the Rasmussen-Hirschman linkage indices with the IBGE matrix of 2010 and 2015.

Source: Operação Lava Jato, convenções e investimento privado — Proceedings of an academic event (even3); authors from Cedeplar-UFMG, 2024 · Section 3, Tables 1 to 3 · open original ↗