DIEESE — Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies
Research organization created and maintained by the Brazilian trade-union movement. It is not a government body.
Figures on the dashboard
- R$172.2 billion — Reduction in investment estimated by DIEESE (Petrobras and construction) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$104.3 billion — Petrobras's share of the reduction in investment (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$67.89 billion — Construction's share of the reduction in investment (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$244.6 billion — Potential value added not generated (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$85.75 billion — Potential wage bill not generated (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$47.44 billion — Potential taxes not collected (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- R$20.26 billion — Potential social security contributions and FGTS not collected (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
- 4,439,789 jobs — Potential jobs not generated, added up year by year (DIEESE) (Estimated impact, Dec. 31, 2017)
Evidence
The material is a 14-slide presentation, dated São Paulo, March 16, 2021, bearing the marks of DIEESE and CUT. Slide 3 credits the preparation of the chart to the DIEESE/FUP Subsection.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slides 1, 3 and footer of all slides · open original ↗
DIEESE estimates a reduction of R$172,214.52 million (nominal) in planned investments from 2014 to 2017: R$104,321.71 million from Petrobras and R$67,892.81 million from civil construction.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 6, table 'Reduction of planned investments - Petrobras and Civil Construction' · open original ↗
Per year, the estimated reduction is R$9,482.41 million in 2014, R$41,834.77 million in 2015, R$56,942.63 million in 2016 and R$63,954.71 million in 2017. Petrobras: R$25,997.49 million (2015), R$35,656.07 million (2016) and R$42,668.15 million (2017). Civil construction: R$9,482.41 million (2014), R$15,837.28 million (2015), R$21,286.56 million (2016) and R$21,286.56 million (2017).
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 6, table · open original ↗
The Petrobras part is the difference between investment actually made and investment projected for 2015–2017 by multiple linear regression, in which investment depends on net revenue, the Brent oil price and the company's net profit (annualized quarterly data, in US$ million). The slide calls the difference investments canceled 'as a result of the way Lava Jato was carried out, without preserving the productive and services structure.'
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 5, chart and side text · open original ↗
The civil construction part comes from a survey, on the MPF and TCU websites, of works halted as a result of Lava Jato actions and works in which the companies declared financial inability to continue.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 6, side text · open original ↗
Applying the reduction of R$172.2 billion as a demand shock in an input-output matrix, DIEESE estimates, summing 2014 to 2017: 4,439,789 jobs, R$244,647 million in value added, R$47,441 million in taxes, R$85,754 million in wage bill and R$20,259 million in social security and FGTS that were not generated, and a 3.6% potential addition to GDP.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 7, table, TOTAL row · open original ↗
Per year, the estimated potential jobs not generated are 361,212 (2014), 1,130,165 (2015), 1,526,917 (2016) and 1,421,496 (2017); the value added, R$14,832.79 million, R$63,507.34 million, R$83,110.48 million and R$83,196.74 million; the potential addition to GDP, 0.3%, 1.0%, 1.2% and 1.1%.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 7, table · open original ↗
Of the 4,439,789 jobs, 2,050,136 come from direct and indirect effects (affected sectors and their chains) and 2,389,653 from the income effect (consumption that does not take place). In value added, R$124,859 million direct and indirect and R$119,789 million from the income effect.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 8, table · open original ↗
In the sectoral distribution of potential jobs, construction accounts for 1,075,719 and commerce for 802,176; oil and gas extraction and refining, for 44,153; the 'others' group totals 686,344.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 9, table · open original ↗
In DIEESE's scenario chart, GDP 'without Lava Jato' also falls: −2.5% in 2015 and −2.1% in 2016, versus −3.6% and −3.3% observed. In 2014, 0.8% versus 0.5%; in 2017, 2.4% versus 1.3%.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 11, chart 'Evolution of GDP - Scenario with and without Lava Jato' · open original ↗
In DIEESE's jobs chart, the 'without LJ' line moves away from the 'actual' line each year and, in 2017, the distance between the two is visually close to 4.4 million, the same value as the summed total in the slide 7 table.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 12, chart · open original ↗
Stated methodology: period 2014–2017 (last year of the consolidated National Accounts); 2010 input-output matrix updated by the Passoni (2019) method; demand shock formed by the affected works in civil construction and the amounts not invested by Petrobras; oil and gas extraction, refining and construction sectors.
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 13 · open original ↗
The opening slide summarizes: 'Lava Jato cost 4.4 million jobs and 3.6% of GDP,' and states that workers support the fight against corruption, which should 'preserve the productive structure and punish the guilty.'
Source: Implicações econômicas intersetoriais da Operação Lava Jato — DIEESE, Mar. 16, 2021 · slide 2, 'Key data' · open original ↗
The Cedeplar study mentions the DIEESE study (2021) and reproduces, in Table 1, DIEESE's results (4.4 million jobs, R$244 bn in value added, R$47 bn in taxes, R$85 bn in wage bill, R$20 bn in social security and FGTS, 3.6% of GDP); it adds its own calculation of the Rasmussen-Hirschman linkage indices with the IBGE matrix of 2010 and 2015.
Source: Operação Lava Jato, convenções e investimento privado — Proceedings of an academic event (even3); authors from Cedeplar-UFMG, 2024 · Section 3, Tables 1 to 3 · open original ↗
In a report of August 8, 2021 on the DIEESE study, Bráulio Borges said it is very difficult to isolate the effects and that exercises of this kind tend to simplify and exaggerate, and that worse performance by Petrobras would be expected because it was more indebted than other oil companies; Claudio Frischtak attributed the halting of public works to planning errors and governance failures and said many works would have stopped without the operation; Nelson Barbosa observed that part of the losses may reflect misallocation of resources caused by corruption, offsettable by future efficiency gains.
Source: Estudo adotado por Lula infla o custo econômico da Lava Jato — Folhapress (via Folha de Pernambuco), Aug. 8, 2021 · News report of August 8, 2021 · open original ↗
According to Agência Brasil, a DIEESE study estimated 4.44 million potential jobs, summed over 2014–2017, associated with Lava Jato (not people laid off; the article uses the terms 'jobs' and 'positions' without that caveat), and a study by UFRJ and Uerj estimated at R$142 billion the losses in the construction, shipbuilding, heavy engineering and metalworking sectors.
Source: Lava Jato destruiu 4,44 milhões de empregos, aponta estudo — Agência Brasil, Mar. 17, 2024 · First paragraphs · open original ↗