GO Associados
Private economic consultancy in São Paulo that released, in 2015, estimates of Lava Jato's impact on activity.
Figures on the dashboard
- R$143.0 billion — GO Associados: direct and indirect impact on economic activity in 2015 (about 2.5% of GDP) (Estimated impact, Aug. 12, 2015)
- 1,900,000 jobs — GO Associados: potential jobs affected in 2015 (Estimated impact, Aug. 12, 2015)
- R$87.00 billion — GO Associados with FGV: loss to the economy in a scenario of a 20% drop in Petrobras's investments (April 2015) (Estimated impact, Apr. 2015)
- 1,000,000 jobs — GO Associados with FGV: jobs cut in a scenario of a 20% drop in Petrobras's investments (April 2015) (Estimated impact, Apr. 2015)
- R$142.0 billion — Paula and Moura (2019): losses of up to R$142 billion in construction, shipbuilding, heavy engineering and metalworking (citing consulting firms) (Estimated impact, Aug. 28, 2019)
On the timeline
Evidence
GO Associados estimated, in August 2015, a direct and indirect impact of about R$143 billion (approximately 2.5% of GDP) on 2015 economic activity, in a scenario of a 37% cut in Petrobras investments (2015–2019 plan) and a 30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, opening paragraphs and assumptions box (the GO study was not opened) · open original ↗
In the same scenario, GO Associados estimated a loss of about 1.9 million jobs (services ~1.2 million, industry 426 thousand, agriculture 245 thousand), a contraction of R$22.4 billion in the wage bill and R$9.4 billion of tax revenue lost.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sector tables · open original ↗
GO Associados used an input-output methodology applied to the reduction in Petrobras investments and public works, stated that the effect is amplified in a recessionary period and said that most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations, without quantifying that alternative scenario.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sections 'Assumptions' and 'Scenarios' · open original ↗
In April 2015, GO Associados, together with FGV, had estimated a loss of R$87 billion to the economy and a cut of about 1 million jobs, based on a 20% drop in Petrobras investments.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, section 'Scenarios' (earlier estimate) · open original ↗
Luiz Fernando de Paula and Rafael Moura wrote in Valor (August 28, 2019) that consultancies such as GO Associados and Tendências calculate something around 2% to 2.5% as the operation's contribution to the GDP contractions of 2015 and 2016, with losses in the metalworking, shipbuilding, civil construction, and heavy engineering sectors that could total up to R$142 billion, acknowledging that it is not easy to estimate the aggregate impact.
Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, 4th paragraph after the introduction · open original ↗