National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Private U.S. economic research organization that circulates working papers without formal review.
Evidence
Ferraz, Moura, Norden, and Schechtman (NBER, July 2025), using a difference-in-differences design with data from RAIS and the Central Bank's credit registry, estimated that the 21 investigated construction companies saw a 63% drop in wage bill and a 54% drop in employment after the investigations began, compared with control firms with more than 250 employees; the volume of new loans to them fell 50%.
Source: The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil's Lava Jato Investigation — NBER (Working Paper 33991), July 2025 · Introduction, pp. 1–2; Table 2 and Figure 3 · open original ↗
The same study estimated that private banks with greater prior exposure to the investigated firms reduced new credit to non-investigated firms (an aggregate effect of -18% in new credit at the firm level) and that non-investigated firms more exposed through their banking relationships reduced their wage bill by 12% and employment by 10% after the investigations began.
Source: The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil's Lava Jato Investigation — NBER (Working Paper 33991), July 2025 · Introduction, pp. 3–4; Tables 4 to 7 · open original ↗
Among the 21 investigated construction firms that make up the NBER study's treatment group, two went bankrupt (GDK and Schahin) and twelve entered judicial reorganization during or after the sample period; in only seven of them were the main executives not arrested or sought by the Federal Police, and all were excluded from business with the government (Szerman, 2023, cited).
Source: The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil's Lava Jato Investigation — NBER (Working Paper 33991), July 2025 · Section 2, p. 8 · open original ↗
The NBER study describes Lava Jato as an investigation that resulted in more than 360 convictions, nearly 400 cooperation agreements, and about 30 corporate leniency agreements, and states that defendants paid about US$3 billion in fines, penalties, and voluntary restitution (citing Da Ros and Taylor, 2022).
Source: The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil's Lava Jato Investigation — NBER (Working Paper 33991), July 2025 · Section 2, p. 7 · open original ↗