The cost to Brazil · study
The economic crisis of 2014/2017
- Authorship
- Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho
- Institution
- Estudos Avançados (IEA-USP)
Article in an academic journal (Estudos Avançados, IEA-USP); the author's institutional affiliation was not verified in this version of the collection. - Year
- 2017
- Period analyzed
- 2011–2017
- Document
- A crise econômica de 2014/2017 · original ↗
Method
Análise macroeconômica da combinação de choques de oferta e demanda e da sustentabilidade da dívida.
Results
| Fall in per capita GDP 2014 to 2016 (approx.) | 9 pct_pib_per_capita | source |
Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.
Assumptions
- The New Economic Matrix reduced productivity and potential output.
Limitations
- It does not address Lava Jato or corruption; it serves as an alternative interpretation, not as a hypothesis test against the operation.
- The weight of policy errors is contested by other economists, such as Borges (IBRE).
Divergences and other studies
See estudo:f01-ibre-borges-2018-01 (share of external shocks) and the consultancies' estimates (Lava Jato share).
Extracted evidence
Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho (Estudos Avançados, 2017) attributes the 2014/2017 crisis to a set of supply and demand shocks resulting from economic policy errors (New Economic Matrix from 2011/2012, exhaustion of the NME at the end of 2014, public debt sustainability crisis in 2015 and correction of tariff populism); the text states that per capita output fell about 9% between 2014 and 2016 and does not mention Lava Jato or corruption.
Source: A crise econômica de 2014/2017 — Estudos Avançados (IEA-USP), vol. 31, no. 89, 2017 · Abstract and section 'Determinants of the 2014/2017 crisis' (text search for 'Lava' and 'corrup' with no occurrences) · open original ↗
Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: The absence of Lava Jato from the text is a finding from reading the article's HTML on SciELO; the article treats Petrobras as an instrument of policy (investment, price control), with losses of more than R$50 billion cited from pricing policy. Analysis article by an economist, who defends the thesis of economic policy errors; it is one side of the debate on the New Economic Matrix.