The cost to Brazil · study
Fiscal Monitoring Report (June 2018) — section on GDP and civil construction
- Authorship
- Instituição Fiscal Independente (IFI), Senado Federal
- Institution
- Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) of the Federal Senate
Technical body of the Federal Senate; not a partisan body. - Year
- 2018
- Period analyzed
- 2014–2018
- Document
- Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal — junho de 2018 · original ↗
Method
Análise de conjuntura com dados do IBGE e do Caged; sem modelo causal.
Results
| Consecutive quarters of negative contribution from construction to industrial GDP | 14 trimestres | source |
| Contribution of civil construction to industrial GDP over 12 months (percentage points) | -0.9 pp_pib | source |
Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.
Limitations
- It cites Lava Jato as one of the factors in the performance of civil construction, without estimating the share of each.
Divergences and other studies
A neutral institutional source that acknowledges the operation's effect on large construction firms, but includes it in a list of factors.
Extracted evidence
The IFI (Senate) wrote in June 2018 that the negative performance of civil construction, maintained after the end of the recession, is a limiting factor in the recovery of GDP, and listed among the causes the slow recovery of income and employment, the contraction of public investment and the effect of Operation Lava Jato on large construction firms; construction subtracted 0.9 point from industrial GDP growth over four quarters and had been in negative territory for 14 quarters.
Excerpt: “o efeito da Operação Lava Jato sobre grandes construtoras”
Source: Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal — junho de 2018 — Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), Federal Senate, June 2018 · Section 1.1, p. 7 (Chart 4) · open original ↗
Parliamentary report (primary) · excerpt examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: It lists the operation as one among several factors, without estimating the share of each. Text from a fiscal report, not a causal study.
The IFI reported, with data from Caged/MTE, that formal employment in civil construction had accumulated a change of -0.8% over 12 months through April 2018 (-1.4% in February; -1.1% in March).
Source: Relatório de Acompanhamento Fiscal — junho de 2018 — Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), Federal Senate, June 2018 · Section 1.2, Table 3 (p. 8) · open original ↗
Parliamentary report (primary) · excerpt examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: 2018 period; it shows the slowness of the recovery, not the loss of 2014–2017.