Economic consequences of Operation Lava-Jato (opinion article in Valor)

Luiz Fernando de Paula and Rafael Moura wrote in Valor (August 28, 2019) that consultancies such as GO Associados and Tendências calculate something around 2% to 2.5% as the operation's contribution to the GDP contractions of 2015 and 2016, with losses in the metalworking, shipbuilding, civil construction, and heavy engineering sectors that could total up to R$142 billion, acknowledging that it is not easy to estimate the aggregate impact.

Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, 4th paragraph after the introduction · open original ↗

News report · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Opinion article that repeats the 2015 estimates (ex ante) as if they were for 2015 and 2016 'respectively'; it is not an independent estimate. The R$142 billion is of the same order as GO's figure (R$142.6 billion): possibly the same estimate, but not demonstrated (different scopes).

Paula and Moura (2019), citing data from the newspaper O Empreiteiro, state that between 2015 and 2016 the gross revenues of Queiroz Galvão, Andrade Gutierrez, and Camargo Corrêa fell, respectively, 37%, 31%, and 39%; that Odebrecht went from gross revenue of R$107 billion, 168,000 employees, and operations in 27 countries (2014) to R$82 billion, 58,000 employees, and 14 countries (2017); and that the consolidated financial assets of Queiroz Galvão, OAS, Andrade Gutierrez, and Camargo Corrêa went from R$25.77 billion (2014) to about R$8.041 billion (2017), a drop of 68.6%.

Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, section on the largest contractors · open original ↗

News report · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Opinion article; original source (O Empreiteiro) not opened; gross revenue and employee figures do not distinguish the effect of asset sales, contract terminations, and the recession. The drop in financial assets includes divestments (Braskem, Oi, CPFL) required by leniency agreements and creditors.

Paula and Moura (2019) point out that Petrobras's investment fell from about US$48.8 billion in 2013 to US$15.1 billion in 2017 (from 1.97% to 0.73% of GDP) and that formal employment in the Petrobras System went from 86,108 to 68,829 between 2013 and 2016, and that of outsourced workers from 360,180 to 117,555, a 'loss of almost 260 thousand jobs'.

Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, section on oil and gas · open original ↗

News report · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Primary source of the numbers not indicated in the article. It mixes direct and outsourced employment; the 260 thousand sum mixes categories and includes the contraction caused by the oil price (the same article acknowledges a sharp fall in the commodity). Overlaps with another record in the archive (Petrobras).

Paula and Moura (2019) write that, between 2014 and 2017, construction recorded a negative balance of 991,734 formal jobs between hirings and layoffs, and that, from 2014 to 2016, construction accounted for 1,115,223 of the 5,110,284 (21.8%) jobs lost in the employed population.

Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, 5th paragraph · open original ↗

News report · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The first number appears to come from Caged; the second, from a household survey (PNAD), a different concept of 'job'. The text attributes the whole to the paralysis caused by Lava Jato, but the data are sectoral employment figures, not causation.