Brazilian Institute of Economics of FGV (IBRE)
FGV's economic research center; houses the Codace, the committee that dates Brazilian business cycles, and the IBRE Blog.
Evidence
Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV and LCA Consultores), on September 14, 2018, did not present his own estimate of the effect of Lava Jato on GDP; he cited the figure of 15% of GDP attributed by 'some' without endorsing it, and the result of an IMF study according to which corruption news shocks reduce per capita GDP by about 3% in two years (larger effects in emerging economies).
Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post (blogdoibre.fgv.br/node/448) · open original ↗
The same post listed as factors in the 2014–2016 recession exogenous shocks (climate, water and energy in 2012–2016; fall in oil prices between late 2014 and early 2016), Petrobras's earlier mismanagement and economic policy errors, and pointed to the lack of clear rules for leniency agreements (MP 703/2015 lapsed in May 2016) as a factor that amplified systemic risk.
Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗
On January 17, 2018, Borges estimated that the international environment (commodities falling almost 60% from 2012 to early 2016, after rising 370% between 1999 and 2011) accounted for about half of the slowdown in Brazilian growth in 2012–2016 relative to 1999–2011; he also pointed out that the change in inventories contributed 2.4 points of the 3.5% fall in GDP in 2015 and that infrastructure investment fell from 2%–2.5% of GDP to 1.4% in 2017.
Source: A diferença entre os efeitos da Lava-Jato no curto prazo e no médio e longo prazo — IBRE Blog (FGV), Jan. 17, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗
The Business Cycle Dating Committee (Codace/FGV) dated the recession as beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2014, with a trough in the 4th quarter of 2016; GDP fell 8.6% in the period (almost 11% per capita, seasonally adjusted), the fourth-worst recession in about 150 years by the author's criterion.
Source: Chegou ao fim a quarta pior recessão brasileira dos últimos 150 anos — IBRE Blog (FGV), Oct. 31, 2017 · Post of October 31, 2017 · open original ↗