Ministry of Finance (Secretariat of Economic Policy)
Economic ministry of the federal government; the SPE produced the October 2015 document on investments in the oil and gas sector.
Figures on the dashboard
- US$30.00 billion — SPE/MF: total effect of the 33% reduction in Petrobras investment in 2015 (about 1.7% of GDP) (Estimated impact, Oct. 21, 2015)
On the timeline
Evidence
The SPE/MF estimated (October 21, 2015) that Petrobras's investment equals about 1.8% of GDP; the 33% reduction in 2015 (from US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn) would take 0.6 point off GDP directly and, with a multiplier of 2.5 (direct, indirect and income effect, input-output matrix cited from FGV), about US$30 billion or 1.7% of GDP.
Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Sections 2, 3.1 and 3.2, pp. 3–5 (Table 1, p. 4) · open original ↗
The same document estimated that the reduction in the contractors' investments (15% on an investment of about 2.8% of GDP, Tendências assumptions) would correspond to 0.4% of GDP, and that the sum of the direct, indirect and 'lateral' impacts may have exceeded 2 percentage points of GDP.
Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 4, p. 6 · open original ↗
The SPE/MF document says that the change in commodity prices, including oil, is one of the main factors of impact on growth since 2014, 'especially in 2015,' and that, in the oil and gas chain, 'other factors, of a non-economic nature' also played a preponderant role in the behavior of the sector's main company.
Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 1, p. 1 · open original ↗
The SPE/MF document noted an average decline of about 20% in global investment by oil producers in 2015 (source Barclays Research), which would correspond to a significant fraction of Petrobras's reduction.
Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 3.3, p. 5 (Chart 3) · open original ↗