Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Private economic consultancy that estimated, in 2015, the effect of Lava Jato on GDP.
Figures on the dashboard
- R$142.0 billion — Paula and Moura (2019): losses of up to R$142 billion in construction, shipbuilding, heavy engineering and metalworking (citing consulting firms) (Estimated impact, Aug. 28, 2019)
On the timeline
Evidence
Tendências Consultoria estimated, in December 2015, that Lava Jato was subtracting about 2.5 percentage points from 2015 GDP; without its effects, the contraction would be approximately 0.7% to 1.3%, according to economist Alessandra Ribeiro, rather than 3.2% (the consultancy's projection at the time).
Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, paragraphs on Tendências · open original ↗
Tendências calculated that Petrobras's investment was equivalent to about 2% of GDP and that of the large construction companies to about 2.8%, so that the affected companies together accounted for almost 5% of GDP; total investment was 17% to 20% of GDP.
Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, methodology section · open original ↗
The same document estimated that the reduction in the contractors' investments (15% on an investment of about 2.8% of GDP, Tendências assumptions) would correspond to 0.4% of GDP, and that the sum of the direct, indirect and 'lateral' impacts may have exceeded 2 percentage points of GDP.
Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Section 4, p. 6 · open original ↗
Luiz Fernando de Paula and Rafael Moura wrote in Valor (August 28, 2019) that consultancies such as GO Associados and Tendências calculate something around 2% to 2.5% as the operation's contribution to the GDP contractions of 2015 and 2016, with losses in the metalworking, shipbuilding, civil construction, and heavy engineering sectors that could total up to R$142 billion, acknowledging that it is not easy to estimate the aggregate impact.
Source: Consequências econômicas da Operação Lava-Jato (artigo de opinião) — Valor Econômico (copy hosted at bresserpereira.org.br), Aug. 28, 2019 · Full text, 4th paragraph after the introduction · open original ↗