The cost to Brazil · study
Estimate of the effects of Operation Lava Jato on economic activity (GO Associados), 2015
- Authorship
- GO Associados (sócios Gesner Oliveira e Fernando Marcato citados pela imprensa)
- Institution
- GO Associados
Private economics consultancy. - Year
- 2015
- Period analyzed
- 2015 (ex ante scenario, released on August 12, 2015)
- Document
- Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria · original ↗
Method
Matriz insumo-produto aplicada à redução de investimentos da Petrobras e de obras públicas, com efeitos diretos e indiretos.
Results
| Direct and indirect impact on activity in 2015 (about 2.5% of GDP) | R$143.0 billion | source |
| Potential jobs affected in 2015 | 1,900,000 jobs | source |
| Contraction of the wage bill | R$22.40 billion | source |
| Tax revenue lost | R$9.40 billion | source |
| Earlier estimate (April 2015, with FGV): loss to the economy | R$87.00 billion | source |
Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.
Assumptions
- Petrobras 2015–2019 plan with a 37% cut in investments.
- 30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors.
- Effect amplified in a recessionary period and more absorbable in an expanding economy.
Limitations
- Original document not located; known only through news reports (Gazeta do Povo, BBC Brasil).
- Scenario published during the year itself, without ex post confirmation.
- It does not separate corruption, the conduct of the investigations and the fall in oil prices; the consultancy says most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations, but does not quantify it.
- GO's partner described the scenario as relatively pessimistic (BBC Brasil, December 2, 2015).
Divergences and other studies
BBC Brasil records the amount as R$142.6 billion; Gazeta do Povo, as about R$143 billion. The R$142 billion figure that appears in texts by Paula and Moura (2019) and in Ineep is possibly the same GO estimate; not demonstrated (the article attributes R$142 bn to losses in four sectors, citing consultancies, and GO estimated the impact on total economic activity in 2015).
Extracted evidence
GO Associados estimated, in August 2015, a direct and indirect impact of about R$143 billion (approximately 2.5% of GDP) on 2015 economic activity, in a scenario of a 37% cut in Petrobras investments (2015–2019 plan) and a 30% drop in disbursements by the investigated contractors.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, opening paragraphs and assumptions box (the GO study was not opened) · open original ↗
News report · described in a news report (not examined by the project) · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: Private consultancy scenario, published during the year it refers to (ex ante), without peer review. BBC Brasil (December 2, 2015) records the same estimate as R$142.6 billion and cites partner Fernando Marcato describing it as a relatively pessimistic scenario. It does not separate the effect of corruption, of the conduct of the investigations and of the fall in oil prices.
In the same scenario, GO Associados estimated a loss of about 1.9 million jobs (services ~1.2 million, industry 426 thousand, agriculture 245 thousand), a contraction of R$22.4 billion in the wage bill and R$9.4 billion of tax revenue lost.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sector tables · open original ↗
News report · described in a news report (not examined by the project) · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: The article's headline says 1.9 million and the text says almost 2 million. These are potential jobs in an input-output model, not proven layoffs. Do not add to the value added of R$143 bn (same model).
GO Associados used an input-output methodology applied to the reduction in Petrobras investments and public works, stated that the effect is amplified in a recessionary period and said that most of the cost could be avoided with care in conducting the investigations, without quantifying that alternative scenario.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, sections 'Assumptions' and 'Scenarios' · open original ↗
News report · described in a news report (not examined by the project) · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: The only estimate in the set that explicitly states that part of the cost would depend on how the investigations were conducted; the statement is summarized by the report, not from the original study.
In April 2015, GO Associados, together with FGV, had estimated a loss of R$87 billion to the economy and a cut of about 1 million jobs, based on a 20% drop in Petrobras investments.
Source: Efeitos da Lava Jato podem eliminar 1,9 milhão de empregos, diz consultoria — Gazeta do Povo, Aug. 12, 2015 · News report of August 12, 2015, section 'Scenarios' (earlier estimate) · open original ↗
News report · described in a news report (not examined by the project) · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: Earlier estimate replaced by the August one; original April document not located. Same model, less severe assumption.