The cost to Brazil · study
The difference between the effects of Lava-Jato in the short term and in the medium and long term
- Authorship
- Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV e LCA Consultores)
- Institution
- Brazilian Institute of Economics of FGV (IBRE)
Economic research center of the Fundação Getulio Vargas; the author is also an economist at a private consultancy. - Year
- 2018
- Period analyzed
- 1999–2017
- Document
- A diferença entre os efeitos da Lava-Jato no curto prazo e no médio e longo prazo · original ↗
Method
Decomposição comparativa do crescimento (1999–2011 versus 2012–2016), correlação com preços de commodities (1997–2017) e literatura de choques globais (Fernández, Schmitt-Grohé e Uribe, NBER 2016).
Results
| Share of the 2012–2016 slowdown attributed to the international environment (approx.) | 50 pct_desaceleracao | source |
| Contribution of the change in inventories to the 2015 GDP decline (percentage points, out of 3.5) | 2.4 pp_pib | source |
Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.
Assumptions
- Share of growth explained by global shocks (commodities and world interest rates).
Limitations
- It does not quantify the effect of the operation; the author's estimates have limited methodological detail in the text.
- Blog: the author's opinions, not the institution's.
Divergences and other studies
It presents the thesis that the operation may have reduced growth in the short term (halted works) without denying the role of external shocks and policy errors. The author does not rule out a short-term effect of the operation, without quantifying it, and attributes most of the slowdown to external shocks and earlier policy errors.
Extracted evidence
On January 17, 2018, Borges estimated that the international environment (commodities falling almost 60% from 2012 to early 2016, after rising 370% between 1999 and 2011) accounted for about half of the slowdown in Brazilian growth in 2012–2016 relative to 1999–2011; he also pointed out that the change in inventories contributed 2.4 points of the 3.5% fall in GDP in 2015 and that infrastructure investment fell from 2%–2.5% of GDP to 1.4% in 2017.
Source: A diferença entre os efeitos da Lava-Jato no curto prazo e no médio e longo prazo — IBRE Blog (FGV), Jan. 17, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗
Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026
Limitations: Author's estimates without methodological detail in the text. He admits that Lava Jato, as a reform wave, halted works and may have a negative short-term effect, but does not quantify it.