Estimate of the impact of Lava Jato on 2015 GDP (Tendências Consultoria)

Authorship: Tendências Consultoria (economista Alessandra Ribeiro citada pela imprensa)
Institution: Tendências Consultoria Integrada
Private economics consultancy.
Year: 2015
Period analyzed: 2015 (December 2015 projection)
Document: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) · original ↗

Method

Não descrito na reportagem; a consultoria usa o peso do investimento da Petrobras (2% do PIB) e das grandes construtoras (2,8% do PIB) e estimativa própria de redução desses investimentos.

Results

Subtraction from 2015 GDP growth (percentage points)

2.5 pp_pib

source

Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.

Assumptions

Projected 2015 GDP contraction of 3.2%.
Without the operation, the contraction would be about 0.7% to 1.3%.

Limitations

Original study not located.
The news report does not explain how the consultancy isolated the effect of the operation.
Ex ante projection during the current year.

Divergences and other studies

Same order of magnitude as GO Associados (2.5% of GDP), but the two consultancies start from the same shock (lower investment by Petrobras and the contractors) and are not independent evidence of each other. The October 2015 SPE/MF document uses Tendências' assumption for the contractors (15% reduction).

Extracted evidence

Tendências Consultoria estimated, in December 2015, that Lava Jato was subtracting about 2.5 percentage points from 2015 GDP; without its effects, the contraction would be approximately 0.7% to 1.3%, according to economist Alessandra Ribeiro, rather than 3.2% (the consultancy's projection at the time).

Document described in a news reportEstimate

Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, paragraphs on Tendências · open original ↗

News report · excerpt examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The report does not explain how the consultancy isolated the effect of the operation from that of the fall in oil prices, the political crisis, and economic policy; the counterfactual is the consultancy's own. The 2015 GDP contraction cited by other sources read ranges from 3.5% to 3.8%, depending on the version of the series.

Tendências calculated that Petrobras's investment was equivalent to about 2% of GDP and that of the large construction companies to about 2.8%, so that the affected companies together accounted for almost 5% of GDP; total investment was 17% to 20% of GDP.

Document described in a news reportSingle source

Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, methodology section · open original ↗

News report · excerpt examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: It shows the size of the potential shock, not the realized effect.

In the same report, professor André Biancarelli (Unicamp) said the fight against corruption should not be subordinated to the needs of companies; Fabiano Angélico, of Transparency International, argued that society gains from clear rules and that laid-off workers would be absorbed by mid-sized companies; prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol stated that corruption, and not its investigation, harms the economy, using an analogy attributed to Sergio Moro: the blame lies with whoever committed the crime, not with whoever found the body.

StatementSingle source

Source: Lava Jato e a recessão (BBC Brasil, reproduzida pelo IHU-Unisinos) — BBC Brasil / IHU-Unisinos, Dec. 2, 2015 · BBC Brasil report of December 2, 2015, opinions section · open original ↗

News report · excerpt examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Statements summarized by the report (paraphrase, without quotation marks); the absorption of the unemployed by mid-sized companies is opinion, not data. The literal texts were not located in the source.