How did Lava-Jato affect GDP? New evidence for the debate

Authorship: Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV e LCA Consultores)
Institution: Brazilian Institute of Economics of FGV (IBRE)
Economic research center of the Fundação Getulio Vargas; the author is also an economist at a private consultancy.
Year: 2018
Period analyzed: 2012–2018 (recession 2014–2016)
Document: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate · original ↗

Method

Revisão de evidências: estudo do BCE (controle sintético, 23 países), índice de notícias de corrupção do FMI (painel), datação do Codace e reestimação do PIB com deflator corrigido.

Results

Reduction in per capita GDP in the two years after a corruption news shock (IMF, country average)

3 pct_pib_per_capita

source

Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.

Assumptions

Anti-corruption reforms and campaigns tend to have a short-term cost and a medium- and long-term benefit.

Limitations

It does not produce its own estimate for Lava Jato.
International evidence is not specific to Brazil.
Blog: the author's opinions, not the institution's.

Divergences and other studies

It cites, without endorsing, the figure of 15% of GDP attributed by some, far above the others. It contrasts with ANPEC 2025 (5% to 7%), which uses a synthetic country, and with the consultancies' estimates (2 to 2.5 points in 2015).

Extracted evidence

Bráulio Borges (IBRE/FGV and LCA Consultores), on September 14, 2018, did not present his own estimate of the effect of Lava Jato on GDP; he cited the figure of 15% of GDP attributed by 'some' without endorsing it, and the result of an IMF study according to which corruption news shocks reduce per capita GDP by about 3% in two years (larger effects in emerging economies).

Study estimateSingle source

Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post (blogdoibre.fgv.br/node/448) · open original ↗

Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The IMF study measures corruption news in general, in a panel of countries, not Lava Jato. The author argues that the net effect tends to be negative in the short term and possibly positive in the medium and long term. The blog states the author's opinions, not the institution's.

The same post listed as factors in the 2014–2016 recession exogenous shocks (climate, water and energy in 2012–2016; fall in oil prices between late 2014 and early 2016), Petrobras's earlier mismanagement and economic policy errors, and pointed to the lack of clear rules for leniency agreements (MP 703/2015 lapsed in May 2016) as a factor that amplified systemic risk.

Study estimateSingle source

Source: Como a Lava-Jato afetou o PIB? Novas evidências para o debate — IBRE Blog (FGV), Sept. 14, 2018 · Full post · open original ↗

Study (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Qualitative argument, without numerical decomposition in the text.