Impacts of the reduction in oil and gas sector investments on GDP

Authorship: Secretaria de Política Econômica (SPE/MF), com possível participação do MME (indicado pelo nome do arquivo)
Institution: Ministry of Finance (Secretariat of Economic Policy)
Federal government body (Ministry of Finance); economic outlook analysis document of the Dilma Rousseff government.
Year: 2015
Period analyzed: 2015 (document of October 21, 2015)
Document: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB · original ↗

Method

Estimativa direta (peso da Petrobras no PIB x corte anunciado), multiplicador de matriz insumo-produto da FGV (2010) e peso dos investimentos das empreiteiras segundo a Tendências.

Results

Direct effect of the Petrobras cut (percentage points of GDP)	0.6 pp_pib	source
Total effect of the Petrobras cut with multiplier (about 1.7% of GDP)	US$30.00 billion	source
Effect of the reduction in contractors' investments (percentage points of GDP)	0.4 pp_pib	source
Sum of direct, indirect and lateral effects (more than 2 percentage points of GDP)	2 pp_pib	source

Study results are estimates from the authors' model, not measurements.

Assumptions

Petrobras accounts for about 1.8% of GDP (2010–2014 average) and 8.8% of total investment.
Petrobras investment falls 33% in 2015 (US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn).
Multiplier of 2.5 (R$1 bn of E&P investment generates R$2.452 bn of output, with income effect).
Contractors invest 2.8% of GDP and cut 15%.

Limitations

It measures the macroeconomic effect of the reduction in investment, not that of the operation; the text points to the fall in oil prices as the main factor in 2015, but also cites factors of a non-economic nature, with a preponderant role in the company's behavior, and compliance issues, without naming the operation.
Multiplier from a 2010 study applied to 2015, in recession.
The text mentions 'in 2014' for the conclusion about 2 percentage points, probably an error.
Government document in the midst of a political dispute over the causes of the recession; copy hosted by a labor-union entity (FUP).

Divergences and other studies

Contemporaneous with and of the same magnitude as the consultancies' estimates (2 to 2.5 points), but it underscores oil as the main factor in 2015.

Extracted evidence

The SPE/MF estimated (October 21, 2015) that Petrobras's investment equals about 1.8% of GDP; the 33% reduction in 2015 (from US$37.1 bn to US$25 bn) would take 0.6 point off GDP directly and, with a multiplier of 2.5 (direct, indirect and income effect, input-output matrix cited from FGV), about US$30 billion or 1.7% of GDP.

Study estimateEstimate

Source: Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB — Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE/MF); the file name also indicates the MME, Oct. 21, 2015 · Sections 2, 3.1 and 3.2, pp. 3–5 (Table 1, p. 4) · open original ↗

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: It measures the effect of the reduction in Petrobras's investment, which the document attributes mainly to the fall in oil prices in 2015, also citing factors of a non-economic nature and compliance issues; it does not name the operation. Multiplier from 2010 applied to 2015.

The same document estimated that the reduction in the contractors' investments (15% on an investment of about 2.8% of GDP, Tendências assumptions) would correspond to 0.4% of GDP, and that the sum of the direct, indirect and 'lateral' impacts may have exceeded 2 percentage points of GDP.

Study estimateEstimate

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The text dates the result as 'in 2014,' probably a typo for 2015 (document of October 2015). Do not add 1.7% + 0.4% to the GO or Tendências estimates: they use overlapping assumptions.

The SPE/MF document says that the change in commodity prices, including oil, is one of the main factors of impact on growth since 2014, 'especially in 2015,' and that, in the oil and gas chain, 'other factors, of a non-economic nature' also played a preponderant role in the behavior of the sector's main company.

Official documentProven in a document

Excerpt: “outros fatores, de natureza não econômica, também têm tido um papel preponderante”

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: The document does not name Lava Jato in this passage; the reading that 'factors of a non-economic nature' refers to the investigations and the reassessment of assets is an interpretation of the context.

The SPE/MF document noted an average decline of about 20% in global investment by oil producers in 2015 (source Barclays Research), which would correspond to a significant fraction of Petrobras's reduction.

Study estimateSingle source

Official document (primary) · full text examined · accessed on Oct. 24, 2026

Limitations: Market forecast; context for Petrobras's 33% cut, which was larger than the average.